2016年-世界发展银行全球_Malaysia_Economic_Monitor_December_2016___The_Quest_for_Productivity_Growth_97页_3mb

Malaysia Economic Monitor Summary - December 2016

Core Content

This report focuses on Malaysia's economic performance and outlook for 2016 and 2017, with a particular emphasis on the quest for productivity growth. It highlights the challenges and opportunities for enhancing productivity as a key factor in achieving high-income status.

Main Points

• Economic Growth:

  • Malaysia's GDP growth slowed from 5% in 2015 to 4.2% in 2016 (y/y).
  • The growth is expected to remain at 4.3% in 2017 and rise to 4.5% in 2018.
  • Private consumption remains the main driver of growth, supported by low unemployment and government income-support measures.

• Fiscal Policy:

  • The government is implementing fiscal consolidation, reducing operating expenditures.
  • The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to 3.0% of GDP in 2017.
  • The shift from untargeted to targeted fiscal transfers is ongoing.

• Current Account:

  • The current-account surplus is projected to narrow to 1.8% of GDP in 2016 before widening to 2.0% in 2017.
  • A well-diversified export base, especially in manufacturing, helps maintain the trade balance.

• Monetary Policy:

  • Inflation is expected to reach 2-2.5% in 2016 as the effect of the GST introduced in 2015 diminishes.
  • Credit growth has slowed, but liquidity remains sufficient to support economic activity.

• External Risks:

  • Uncertainty in global financial markets poses a significant risk to Malaysia's growth trajectory.
  • Potential US fiscal policies and global economic slowdowns could impact trade, energy prices, and exchange rates.

• Productivity Growth:

  • Productivity growth has slowed over the past decade, especially in large, exporting firms.
  • TFP growth in Malaysia averaged 1.8% over the past 25 years, lower than in Korea and Singapore.
  • Labour productivity growth has been slower than in high-income economies like Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore.

• Productivity Drivers:

  • Infrastructure: Malaysia's infrastructure is strong by international standards, particularly in logistics performance.
  • Education: A high proportion of workers have completed secondary education, but skill mismatches persist.
  • Innovation: Malaysian firms focus mainly on non-technical innovation, such as marketing and distribution improvements.
  • Regulatory Burden: Although not as high as in high-income economies, regulations are perceived as a major constraint to firm efficiency.
  • Resource Misallocation: There is a high degree of variability in productivity levels, indicating resource misallocation across firms.
  • Export Performance: Non-exporting firms contribute less to overall manufacturing productivity, and large firms face greater challenges in productivity growth.

Key Information

• Productivity Importance: Productivity growth is crucial for Malaysia to close the gap with high-income economies.
• TFP Growth: Malaysia's TFP growth is expected to be accelerated to 2.3% annually, with support from the construction sector.
• Labour Productivity: Labour productivity in Malaysia is on a downward trend and trails regional comparators.
• Firm-Level Productivity: Large firms in Malaysia have led the decline in productivity, with non-exporters contributing the least to manufacturing productivity.
• Potential Efficiency Gains: Eliminating resource misallocation could boost aggregate productivity by up to 23%.
• Government Initiatives: The 11th Malaysia Plan aims to increase productivity growth and align with high-income economies.
• Challenges:
  • Skill mismatches in the labor market.
  • Regulatory compliance as a major obstacle.
  • Resource misallocation in the manufacturing sector.
  • Impact of global uncertainty on financial markets and the ringgit.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Convergence Path: Accelerating productivity growth is essential for Malaysia to converge with high-income economies.
• Policy Focus:
  • Improve resource allocation to enhance productivity.
  • Enhance workforce skills and reduce skill mismatches.
  • Streamline regulatory compliance to support firm efficiency.
  • Continue fiscal consolidation while maintaining support for infrastructure and social assistance.
  • Encourage innovation, especially in technical areas, to drive productivity gains.

Annexes Highlights

• Annex I: Describes the methodology and implementation of the Enterprise Survey in Malaysia.
• Annex II: Lists the top obstacles reported by firms in different industrial sectors.
• Annex III: Explains how to estimate firm productivity using Enterprise Survey data.
• Annex IV: Provides a profile of firms in the panel dataset.
• Annex V: Details the data treatment and methodology for analyzing resource misallocation's impact on TFP.

References

• The report references data from the World Bank, the Economic Planning Unit, Bank Negara Malaysia, and the Department of Statistics Malaysia, among others.