20240327-冠通期货-PVC_PVC震荡运行_3页_455kb

investment risk warning: Pvc market is in an oscillating range, with supply increasing and demand weakening, leading to a bearish outlook. the recommended strategy is interval trading with a focus on selling at highs primarily.

supply analysis: PVC production capacity utilization rose by 16.3 percentage points to 80.24% year-over-year, indicating high operational rates. capacity expansion, like the 60,000 tons/year project in Shaanxi, is delayed. despite temporary boosts from price hikes in Taiwan, the overall supply situation remains dominant.

demand factors: real estate indicators are poor, with sales area and investment declining sharply (e.g., housing sales down 20.5% year-on-year in the first two months). inventory levels surged during the holiday period and continue to accumulate, with current stock reaching 6007 million tons—up 154.1% year-on-year, creating selling pressure.

price and market data: The PVC2405 futures contract traded in a narrow range, closing at 5825 yuan/ton below the 20-day moving average, showing a 0.88% decrease. Volume decreased, and basis widened to -205 yuan/ton, indicating a weak physical-market link.

overall market sentiment: On balance, fundamentals suggest continued headwinds from excess supply and inventory, favoring short-selling opportunities near resistance levels. monitor real estate policy changes for potential shifts.