2011年-世界发展银行全球_Do_Migrants_Improve_Governance_at_Home__Evidence_from_a_Voting_Experiment_28页_196kb

Summary of "Do Migrants Improve Governance at Home? Evidence from a Voting Experiment"

Core Content

This article investigates whether international migration, particularly emigration, can improve the quality of governance in origin countries by increasing the demand for political accountability. Using a behavioral experiment in Cape Verde, the authors examine the relationship between migration and political engagement, focusing on how the presence of migrants influences the likelihood of residents participating in a voting-like action to make survey results on public service corruption public.

The study suggests that international emigration has a positive effect on the demand for better political accountability. This effect is more pronounced for return migrants and for those who emigrate to countries with better governance. The results are robust to the use of instrumental variables, including past migration and macroeconomic shocks in destination countries.

The article also highlights the importance of using a behavioral measure of political accountability—mailing a postcard—to avoid issues of conformity bias that may affect self-reported data. This approach provides a more accurate reflection of actual political behavior.

Main Points

• Hypothesis: International migration may promote better governance at home by increasing the demand for political accountability.
• Methodology: A voting experiment was conducted through a postcard mailing campaign. Respondents were asked to mail a postcard if they wanted survey results on public service corruption to be published in the national media.
• Data Source: A tailored household survey was conducted in Cape Verde from 2005 to 2006, involving 1,066 households.
• Key Variables:
  • Proportion of international migrants in the locality (both current and return migrants).
  • Individual and household characteristics such as age, gender, education, income, and family structure.
  • Locality-level variables such as average expenditure per capita and share of residents in certain sectors.
• Theoretical Framework:
  • The decision to mail the postcard is modeled as an expected cost-benefit analysis.
  • The cost of voting includes the effort required to mail the postcard.
  • The benefit is tied to the desire for political accountability and the perceived reliability of the survey and the postal system.
• Empirical Strategy:
  • The study uses locality-level variation to isolate the effect of migration on political accountability.
  • This approach helps mitigate self-selection concerns and endogeneity issues.
  • The results are stable across different specifications and imputation methods.
• Key Findings:
  • International emigration increases the demand for political accountability.
  • Return migrants and those who emigrate to better-governed countries have a stronger effect on this demand.
  • The effect is not limited to return migrants, as current migrants also influence the demand through their communication with family and friends.
  • The study contributes to the literature by using a behavioral measure of political demand and focusing on within-country variation.

Key Information

• Cape Verde Context:
  • A small, homogeneous country in Sub-Saharan Africa with a high rate of emigration.
  • About 23% of the population are current emigrants, and 68% of the educated labor force lives abroad.
  • International remittances account for 16% of GDP and are more significant than foreign direct investment or aid.
• Survey Design:
  • A representative sample of 1,066 households was surveyed.
  • The survey included questions on perceived corruption, migration history, and economic conditions.
  • Interviewers were trained, and the survey was conducted in person.
• Postcard Experiment:
  • A prestamped postcard was used to elicit a behavioral response.
  • The postcard was anonymous, but each had a unique number to link it to the household.
  • Only 43% of postcards were returned, so the survey results were not published in the media.
• Statistical Methods:
  • Probit regressions were used to estimate the probability of mailing the postcard.
  • The main coefficient of interest, $\alpha_1$, represents the effect of the local proportion of migrants on the demand for political accountability.
  • The model also controls for individual, household, and locality-level variables.
• Limitations and Considerations:
  • The study uses a single country's data, which may limit external validity.
  • It is complementary to cross-country studies that examine the broader effects of migration on institutions.
  • The results suggest that migration can have a positive effect on the demand for political accountability, which is a crucial component of good governance.

Conclusion

The article provides evidence that international migration can enhance the demand for political accountability in origin countries, particularly when migrants return or move to better-governed destinations. The use of a behavioral measure and tailored household survey data allows for a more nuanced understanding of the mechanisms at play. The findings contribute to the ongoing debate on the impact of migration on governance and suggest that migration can be a positive force for institutional development in the home country.