20260529-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_6页_767kb

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market update and analysis for fixed income instruments, with a focus on the The Asset G3 Bond Benchmark Review 2026. It includes insights into recent bond price movements, credit performance, macroeconomic data, and analyst comments on key companies in the market. The summary highlights the market dynamics, credit ratings, and financial performance of several major issuers, particularly Xiaomi, H&H, and China Hongqiao, along with other relevant market developments and disclosures.

Market Update Summary

Bond Price Movements

• NAB 29s: Tightened 2-3bps from RO at T+37 and SOFR+54.
• STANLN 7 Perp: Edged 0.6pt higher from RO at par.
• LGENSOs: Tightened 1-2bps amid better buying.
• SOFTBK 65/GENTMK 8.3 Perp: Gained 0.4pt.
• NWDEVL 5.25 Perp/EHICAR 27: Down 0.4-0.5pt.

Top Movers

Key Credit Insights

Xiaomi (1Q26 Results)

• Performance: Revenue decreased by 10.9% yoy to RMB99.1bn, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, rising component prices, and intensified competition.
• Segment Analysis:
  • Smartphone × AIoT: Revenue dropped 14.5% yoy.
  • Smart EV and other initiatives: Revenue increased 6.9% yoy to RMB19.9bn.
• ASP and Shipments:
  • Smartphone ASP increased 8.2% yoy to RMB1,310.
  • Smartphone shipments decreased 19.2% yoy to 33.8mn units.
• Smart EV Deliveries: Increased 6.6% yoy to 80,856 units.
• Financial Highlights:
  • Gross margin remained stable at 22.0%.
  • EBITDA declined 54.4% yoy to RMB5.4bn, with margin narrowing 5.2 pct. pt to 5.4%.
  • Operating cash flow turned negative at -RMB1.8bn, compared to +RMB4.5bn in 1Q25.
• Liquidity: Unrestricted cash to ST debt ratio at 2.5x, indicating a strong liquidity profile.
• Net Cash: Decreased 12.2% to RMB62.9bn as of Mar'26.

H&H (BTSDF)

• Loan Refinancing: In talks with lenders for a cUSD400mn loan refinancing, with a 3-year maturity and 2-year extension option.
• Indicative Price: Margin between 200bps and 300bps.

China Hongqiao (HONGQI)

• Credit Rating: Fitch upgraded the outlook to positive and affirmed BB+ ratings due to improved debt structure, strong profitability, and robust cash flow.

Macro News Recap

• U.S. Markets:
  • S&P 500: +0.58%
  • Dow Jones: +0.05%
  • Nasdaq: +0.91%
• Economic Data:
  • Apr'26 Core PCE Price Index: Increased 0.2% mom, 3.3% yoy.
  • Durable Goods Orders: Rose 7.9% mom, higher than expected.
  • Initial Jobless Claims: Increased to +215k, higher than expected.
  • Crude Oil Inventories: Decreased -3.327mn, better than expected.
• U.S. Treasury Yields:
  • 2-year: 3.99%
  • 5-year: 4.15%
  • 10-year: 4.45%
  • 30-year: 4.98%

New Issues and Pipeline

Offshore Asia New Issues (Priced)

Offshore Asia New Issues (Pipeline)

• No new issues in the pipeline today.

Key Market News

• Onshore Primary Issuances: 86 credit bonds issued yesterday with RMB78bn raised. Month-to-date total raised: RMB1,505bn.
• JD.com: Faces in-depth EU probe over USD2.6bn Ceconomy acquisition.
• PDD: Temu fined USD233mn by EU for selling illegal products.
• Nomura: Raised pre-tax profit target for FY30 to more than USD4.7bn.
• Lai Sun Development: Plans to sell 98.27% of Camper & Nicholsons International.
• Moody's: Withdrew Yanlord's rating for business reasons.
• Fitch: Withdrew Hangzhou Shangcheng Urban Construction & Comprehensive ratings for commercial reasons.
• SoftBank: Plans to redeem all o/s USD669.3mn of SOFTBK 4 07/06/26.

Disclosures and Author Certification

• Author Certification:

  • The author certifies that all views in the report reflect personal opinions.
  • No part of the author's compensation is related to the views expressed.
  • The author did not trade in or deal with the stocks covered within 30 days prior to the report's issue date.
  • The author is not an officer of any Hong Kong listed companies covered.
  • The author has no financial interest in the companies covered.

• Important Disclosures:

  • Risks: There are risks involved in transacting in any securities.
  • Disclaimer: This report is not investment advice and should not be relied upon for decision-making.
  • Legal Liability: CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred from reliance on the report.
  • Distribution: This report is intended for specific recipients and may not be reproduced, reprinted, or distributed without written consent.

Contact Information

• Fixed Income Department:

  • Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801
  • Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk

• Analysts:

  • Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
  • Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk
  • Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk

Summary of Key Views

• Xiaomi's 1Q26 results were weaker due to rising component prices and subsidies.
• Despite the operating performance, Xiaomi is still preferred over BBB for its credit and liquidity profiles.
• The Smart EV segment is expected to mitigate the impact of the softened smartphone market.
• XIAOMI 3.375 04/29/30 and XIAOMI 2.875 07/14/31 are maintained as buy.
• China Hongqiao received a positive outlook from Fitch due to improved fundamentals.
• Market volatility is expected to favor 3–5-year bonds due to high UST volatility.

This summary captures the key insights, market performance, and credit outlooks discussed in the document.