20171030-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Summary

Core Content

Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese stock market performance, sector analysis, company news, and investment strategy as of October 30, 2017. The report highlights the overall market trends, key financial indicators, and future outlook for selected companies.

Market Indices Overview

SSE Composite: Closed at 3390.34, down 0.77%
SZSE Component: Closed at 11312.61, down 1.15%
CSI 300: Closed at 4009.72, down 0.30%
ChiNext: Closed at 1855.99, down 2.12%
Aggregate Market Volume: CNY562.48 billion (USD84.62 billion), up 21.43% from last Friday
Market Performance: Losers outnumbered winners by 2707-to-477

Market Review

Market Trends: Stock indexes experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext index falling over 2%.
Sector Performance:
- Winners: Insurance sector (New China Life Insurance +5.47%, China Life Insurance +5.09%) and Petroleum & Petrochemical sector (PetroChina +2.09%, Sinopec +2.04%).
- Losers: National Defense & Military Service sector (Avic Aviation High-Technology -7.57%, Sichuan Jiumzhou Electric -5.77%) and Coal sector (Shaanxi Heimao Coking -6.62%, Shanxi Coking -6.59%).
Capital Flows: Stock Connect (Northbound) saw capital outflow of 1.256 billion yuan, accelerating after 14:30.
Market Dynamics: Over 1 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements and MLF are due this week, increasing money market pressure. The PBOC's OMO (open market operations) is noteworthy.

Daily Headlines

Property Market Controls: China will not relax property market controls in the short term.
U.S.-China Trade Agreement: Both nations agreed to recognize each other's aircraft safety approval systems, which could benefit Boeing.
U.S. Imposes Duties: The U.S. imposed duties on aluminum foil imports from China, escalating trade tensions.
Trump's Trade Mission: Trump will visit China and sign billions in U.S. investments.
Leadership Changes: Li Xi replaces Hu Chunhua as Guangdong Party Secretary; Li Qiang replaces Han Zheng as Shanghai Party Head.
Financial Regulation: China will increase oversight of Internet finance and guard against systemic financial risks.
Sovereign Bonds: China's USD bonds show spreads in line with triple-A rated sovereign debt.
Foreign Policy: China hopes the U.S. will not allow Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen to transit through its territory.
Thaad Missile Shield: South Korea and China are coordinating to address the deployment of the Thaad system.
BYD's Expansion: BYD plans to sell over 100 electric commercial vehicles in Japan in 2018.
Alibaba's Acquisition: Joe Tsai agreed to buy 49% of the Brooklyn Nets for $2.3 billion.
Apple's iPhone X: iPhone X demand is excellent, with strong pre-sale performance in the UK and Hong Kong.
Legal Developments: The Supreme People's Court rejected a lawsuit against the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Latest Company News

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Outperformed the market with a 8.27% increase, driven by a strong Q3 report.
Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries (600409 CH): Strong sales boost earnings growth, with a 32.61% YoY revenue increase.
Key Financials:
- Operating Revenue (2017Q3): CNY14.9 billion, up 32.61% YoY
- Operating Profit (2017Q3): CNY1.99 billion, up 146.68% YoY
- Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (2017Q3): CNY1.46 billion, up 156.71% YoY
- EPS (2017Q3): CNY0.24 (CNY0.25 after non-recurring items)
- Net Operating Cash Flow per Share (2017Q3): CNY0.11

Investment Strategy

Market Outlook: A structured rally is expected to continue after "Red Oct" (a market downturn period).
Key Sectors:
- Financial Stocks: Banks (stable NIM, less NPL), insurance companies (consumption upgrade), and security brokers (bottoming out).
- Core Assets: Government will focus on quality and economic reform, with "White Horse" stocks (leading companies) as the largest beneficiaries.
- Innovation: Emphasis on advanced manufacturing, technology, and modern services. Recommended sectors: semiconductor, 5G, environmental protection, and military industry.
Theme Investments: SOE reform, integration of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, AI, and 5G.

Company Profile: Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries

Industry Position: A key player in the national soda ash industry, with integrated production of viscose staple fiber, soda ash, organic silicon, and chlor alkali.
Production Capacity:
- Soda ash: 3.4 million metric tons
- Viscose staple fiber: 500,000 metric tons
- Chlor alkali: 400,000 metric tons
- Silicone monomer: 200,000 metric tons
Future Expansion: Building a 200,000 metric ton functional and differentiated viscose staple fiber project, which will increase total capacity to 700,000 metric tons.
Earnings Forecast:
- 2017 EPS: CNY0.97
- 2018 EPS: CNY1.09
- 2019 EPS: CNY1.18
Recommendation: Reiterate "Strong Buy" based on strong earnings growth and industry leadership.

Key Financial Indicators

FY	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E
Revenue (Mn/CNY)	15,757	19,072	21,710	23,732
YoY (%)	15.1%	21.0%	13.8%	9.3%
Net Profit (Mn/CNY)	763	1,996	2,242	2,437
YoY (%)	84.9%	161.7%	12.3%	8.7%
Gross Margin (%)	24.9%	27.8%	25.8%	24.9%
Net Profit Margin (%)	4.8%	10.5%	10.3%	10.3%
ROE (%)	11.0%	19.7%	18.2%	16.5%
EPS (CNY)	0.37	0.97	1.09	1.18

Balance Sheet (Mn/CNY)

Item	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E
Current Assets	5,415	6,836	9,636	13,393
Cash and Cash Equivalent	1,977	2,694	4,674	7,847
Inventory	1,424	1,627	2,095	2,496
Non-current Assets	15,586	15,644	14,927	14,199
Total Assets	21,001	22,480	24,564	27,591
Total Liabilities	13,545	9,572	9,383	9,919
Total Shareholders' Equity	7,456	10,723	12,996	15,488
Total Liabilities and Equity	21,001	20,295	22,379	25,407

Income Statement (Mn/CNY)

Item	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E
Operating Income	15,757	19,072	21,710	23,732
Operating Profit	1,105	2,835	3,067	3,335
Net Profit	801	2,123	2,312	2,512
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company	763	1,996	2,242	2,437
EPS (CNY)	0.37	0.97	1.09	1.18