20160503-兴业证券-A-Share_Daily_Express_11页_849kb

报告摘要

Summary of Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. Report (May 3, 2016)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Chinese stock and bond market performance as of April 29, 2016, along with sectoral analysis, company news, and investment recommendations. It highlights the market's rebound, the performance of specific sectors, and the outlook for bond and equity markets, including potential risks and opportunities.

Market Performance

Indices:
- SSE Composite: Closed at 2992.64, up 1.85%.
- SZSE Component: Closed at 10441.92, up 2.96%.
- ChiNext: Closed at 2217.23, up 3.67%.
- HSI: Closed at 20676.94, down 1.85%.
- HSCEI: Closed at 8748.70, down 2.13%.
- Total Market Volume: CNY 538 billion.
Market Trend:
- The market rebounded and ended a falling trend.
- Blue-chip stocks performed well, while mid-small cap stocks, particularly in ChiNext, showed stronger gains.
- Winners outnumbered losers by a ratio of 57.91 to 1.

Sector Review

Chinese Wine:
- Strong upward movement due to consumption upgrade and stratification.
- Key companies: Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co., Ltd. (002646), Jiugui Liquor Co., Ltd. (000799), Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co., Ltd. (603589), Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co., Ltd. (600702), and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co., Ltd. (600809) all surged by 10%.
Computer Names:
- Also performed well, driven by underpriced value.
- Key companies: China TransInfo Technology Co., Ltd. (002373), Beijing Supermap Software Co., Ltd. (300036), Synthesis Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (300479), and Shanghai Weihong Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (300508) all rose by 10%.

Daily Headlines

PMI Index (April): 49.4, slightly below expectations of 49.8, indicating a modest economic recovery.
Government Policy:
- China is not adopting major stimulus measures.
- Authorities are easing pressure on the yuan by allowing banks to supply more dollars.
- Financial institutions are required to make full provisions for transferred loan rights.
Regulatory Actions:
- Investigation into Baidu Inc. following a college student's death linked to search information.
- Increase in local governments' share of VAT revenue to ease economic slowdown pressures.
- Measures to prevent futures market from becoming overly speculative.
VAT Exemptions: Pledged repos and policy bank bonds are exempted from VAT reforms.

Investment Strategy

Strategy Weekly: Be Cautious of Risk Preference Going Down

Recommended Industries:
- Booming industries: Chemicals (dye, potassium sorbate, refrigerant, optical fiber/cable, viscose staple fiber), rare metals (zinc, aluminum, tungsten, zirconium), agriculture (pig, chicken), construction materials (concrete, PCCP), light manufacturing (paper making).
- Growth stocks: Companies with core competence in intelligent manufacturing and modern service industries.
- Private placement price lower than current price.
- Low PE, high turnover rate, and strong fundamentals: Food & Beverage and Home Appliances & Furnishing.
Thematic Opportunities:
- Sports (event operation, lottery).
- New energy and smart vehicles (ADAS, ASP lithium battery).
- Smart logistics (equipment, information systems).
- Education (preschool, vocational, overseas study).

Fixed Income Weekly: Market Fragility Persists; More Patience for Long-term Investment Opportunity

Short-term Outlook:
- The impact of VAT reform and PMI results will be weaker than expected.
- Bond yields are expected to decline further.
- Economic fundamentals in Q2 may not deteriorate.
- Liquidity and credit risks remain uncertain.
- Risk-free rate is likely to consolidate.
Long-term Outlook:
- China's economy may dip again in the second half of 2016.
- More bond investment opportunities may emerge.
- Credit risk and deleveraging will help bring down the risk-free rate in the long run, though liquidity may face short-term pressure.

Company News

Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ):
- 1Q 2016 revenue: CNY 8.826 billion, up 31.03% YoY.
- Net profit: CNY 2.9 billion, up 31.91% YoY.
- EPS: CNY 0.765.
- Earnings beat expectations (expected 20%).
- Price increase in Q1 boosted sales and profit.
- Distributors increased inventory after price hike.
- Gross margin rose to 69.8%, up 0.4 percentage point YoY.
- Management expenses decreased, while sales and financial expenses slightly increased.
Other Companies:
- Angang Steel (000898.SZ): 1Q net loss of 615 million yuan.
- Bank of Beijing (601169.SH): 1Q net profit of 5.28 billion yuan.
- Baosteel (600019.SH): U.S. steel accusations deemed "groundless".
- China Construction Bank (601939.SH): 1Q net profit of 68 billion yuan.
- China Merchants Securities (600999.SH): 1Q net profit of 1.01 billion yuan.
- China Southern Air (600029.SH): 1Q net profit of 2.68 billion yuan.
- PudongBank (600000.SH): 1Q net profit of 13.9 billion yuan.

Financial Highlights of Wuliangye Yibin

Earnings Forecast:
- EPS: CNY 1.92 (2016), CNY 2.21 (2017), CNY 2.53 (2018).
- Implies 15x PE.
- Share price may rise by 30%.
Potential Risks:
- Economic slowdown.
- Slower-than-expected progress of ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan).

Key Data

Closing Price: 27.53
Total Shares: 3795.97 Mn
Shares Outstanding: 3795.68 Mn
Market Cap: CNY 104,502.96 Mn
Market Float: CNY 104,495.13 Mn
Net Assets: CNY 46,232.08 Mn
Total Assets: CNY 60,984.28 Mn
BVPS: 12.18

Revenue Breakdown (Dec 31, 2015)

Total Revenue: CNY 216,592,873,596.66
Revenue by Product:
- Alcohol: CNY 20,008,001,539.19 (92.83%)
- Plastic Products: CNY 1,358,819,667.84 (6.3%)
- Printing: CNY 534,680,645.71 (0.25%)
- Glass Bottle: CNY 34,413,570.34 (0.16%)
- Others: CNY 988,930,555.71 (0.46%)

Balance Sheet

Total Assets (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: 52,547
- 2016E: 55,996
- 2017E: 62,154
- 2018E: 69,669
Total Liabilities and Equity (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: 52,547
- 2016E: 55,996
- 2017E: 62,154
- 2018E: 69,669
Shareholders' Equity (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: 44,345
- 2016E: 49,646
- 2017E: 55,680
- 2018E: 62,998

Cash Flow Statement

Net Change in Cash (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: 3,942
- 2016E: 3,082
- 2017E: 6,161
- 2018E: 7,478
Cash Flows from Operating Activities (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: 6,691
- 2016E: 4,645
- 2017E: 8,188
- 2018E: 9,431
Cash Flows from Investment Activities (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: -394
- 2016E: 17
- 2017E: -86
- 2018E: -83
Cash Flows from Financing Activities (Mn/CNY):
- 2015: -2,355
- 2016E: -1,580
- 2017E: -1,941
- 2018E: -1,870