20140722-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_39页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 22 July 2014
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of stock performance and company updates for various markets and firms, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes earnings forecasts, valuation metrics, and strategic outlooks for the listed companies, along with key indices and corporate events.
Main Points by Region
China
-
Baoxin Auto Holdings (1293 HK)
- 1H14 Results Preview: Net profit is expected to grow by 25% yoy to Rmb638m, with EPS at Rmb0.25.
- Growth Drivers: Expansion in the after-market business, insurance agency, car financing services, and used-car sales.
- Market Position: Maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$8.00, up from HK$6.45.
- Key Financials:
- Net turnover grows to Rmb34,704m in 2014F.
- Net profit (adj.) is expected to be Rmb1,291m in 2014F.
- EPS is projected to increase to Rmb50.5 in 2014F.
- Valuation: Traded at 9.9x 2014F PE, lower than global peers but higher than Zhengtong and DCH.
- Outlook: The company is expected to benefit from a re-rating as its after-market services business gains more prominence.
- Catalysts: Strong growth in premium car sales, expansion of dealership stores, and improved car sales margins.
-
China Coal (1898 HK)
- 1H14 Earnings: Expected to decline by 65-75% yoy due to weak coal prices and increased costs.
- Price Recovery: 4Q14 is anticipated to show price recovery, with coal prices expected to rise to Rmb540/tonne.
- Target Price: Maintained at HK$5.22, with an upside of +28.3%.
- Key Financials:
- Net profit (rep./act.) is expected to be Rmb1,821m in 2014F.
- EBITDA is projected to be Rmb10,535m in 2014F.
- EPS is expected to be Rmb13.7 in 2014F.
- Valuation: Traded at 23.7x 2014F PE, with EV/EBITDA at 13.0x.
- Outlook: Coal price weakness is expected through 3Q14, but a recovery is anticipated in 4Q14. Long-term catalysts include new coal mine projects and sustainable coal production growth.
Indonesia
- Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP LJ)
- Earnings Forecast: Expected to benefit from more infrastructure projects under the new government.
- Rating: Maintains a BUY rating with a target price of Rp30,275.
- Valuation: Earnings superiority over peers is expected to continue.
Malaysia
- Public Bank (PBK MK)
- Earnings Outlook: 2Q14 earnings are expected to disappoint slightly.
- Rating: HOLD with a target price of RM18.90.
- Valuation: The stock price is seen as overvalued given the earnings expectations.
Singapore
-
Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP)
- 2Q14 Results: In line with expectations.
- Growth Drivers: Acquisitions are expected to drive future growth.
- Rating: BUY with a target price of S$1.40.
-
Keppel REIT (KREIT SP)
- 2Q14 Focus: MBFC Tower 3 is a key focus for the quarter.
- Rating: BUY with a target price of S$1.42.
-
M1 (M1 SP)
- 2Q14 Results: Growth momentum from mobile services.
- Rating: BUY with a target price of S$4.05.
Thailand
-
Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB)
- 2Q14 Earnings: 12% below expectations due to weaker non-interest income and higher opex.
- Rating: SELL with a target price of Bt29.00.
-
Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB)
- 2Q14 Earnings: Core operations remain strong, but bottom-line growth is held back by special provisions.
- Rating: BUY with a target price of Bt24.75.
-
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)
- 2Q14 Earnings: Expected to decline qoq due to one-time expenses and a low aromatic spread.
- Rating: BUY with a target price of Bt80.00.
-
Supalai (SPALI TB)
- 2Q14 Results Preview: No detailed results provided, but the company is expected to benefit from market trends.
Key Indices
| Index | Prev Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17051.7 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 |
| S&P 500 | 1973.6 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 6.8 |
| FTSE 100 | 6728.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| AS30 | 5528.7 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| CSI 300 | 2166.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | -7.0 |
| FSSTI | 3314.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4.6 |
| HSCEI | 10355.7 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -4.3 |
| HSI | 23387.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| JCI | 5127.1 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 5.8 | 20.0 |
| KLCI | 1868.6 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 0.1 |
| KOSPI | 2018.5 | -0.0 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 15215.7 | -1.0 | 0.3 | -0.9 | -6.6 |
| SET | 1538.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 18.5 |
| TWSE | 9441.0 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 1.8 | 9.6 |
| BDI | 724 | -1.1 | -9.3 | -19.9 | -68.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2380 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -3.7 | -7.5 |
| Nymex Crude (US$/bbl) | 105 | -0.0 | 4.6 | -2.5 | 6.3 |
Top Picks (BUY)
| Company | Ticker | Current Price | Target Price | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNBM | 3323 HK | 7.51 | 9.82 | 30.8 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 4.97 | 6.15 | 23.7 |
| Bank Mandiri | BMRI IJ | 10,650.00 | 10,800.00 | 1.4 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | 4.75 | 5.60 | 17.9 |
| DBS | DBS SP | 17.48 | 22.60 | 29.3 |
| Pacific Radiance | PACRA SP | 1.44 | 1.55 | 7.6 |
| Bangkok Bank | BBL TB | 197.00 | 237.00 | 20.3 |
| PTT | PTT TB | 335.00 | 361.00 | 7.8 |
Key Assumptions
| Metric | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | - |
| US | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.0 | - |
| Euro Zone | -0.7 | -0.4 | 1.0 | - |
| Japan | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| Singapore | 1.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | - |
| Malaysia | 5.6 | 4.7 | 5.6 | - |
| Thailand | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | - |
| Hong Kong | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.2 | - |
| China | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.2 | - |
Key Financial Metrics (Baoxin Auto Group)
| Metric | 2013 | 2014F | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA margin | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 8.0 |
| Pre-tax margin | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Net margin | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| ROA | 5.3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 8.1 |
| ROE | 21.2 | 25.0 | 25.8 | 26.2 |
| Net debt/(cash) to equity | 55.8 | 39.1 | 24.8 | 13.4 |
| Interest cover (x) | 3.5 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Coslight Technology International Luncheon | Hong Kong | 25 Jul |
| Thailand 2H14 Market Strategy | Singapore | 30 Jul - 31 Jul |
| Property Sector Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 4 Aug - 5 Aug |
Summary of Key Insights
- Baoxin Auto Group is expected to maintain strong growth in its after-market business and other services, which could drive a re-rating.
- China Coal is expected to see earnings decline in 1H14 due to coal price weakness and rising costs, but a recovery is anticipated in 4Q14, which could trigger a positive price move.
- Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure spending.
- Public Bank is expected to have slightly disappointing 2Q14 earnings.
- Ascott, Keppel REIT, and M1 are all expected to perform well in 2Q14, with growth drivers in their respective sectors.
- Bank of Ayudhya is underperforming, with earnings below expectations.
- Key Indices show mixed performance across different regions, with some indices showing positive growth while others show declines.
- Top Picks indicate a focus on companies with strong growth potential and value for investors.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
