2025-06-09-Jefferies-健身与运动休闲纪事_UFC健身房推出新的柔术特许经营_8页_130kb

Summary of Jefferies Equity Research Report June 9, 2025

This report covers equity research and market updates for Lifestyle & Growth Platforms, focusing on the fitness and athleisure industries. The analysis includes the week's key developments using the "Fitness & Athleisure Chronicles" section.

• New Franchise Launches: UFC Gym announced the launch of UFC Gym Jiu-Jitsu franchises. These aim to capitalize on combat sports growth, with store sizes of 1,500-3,000 sq. ft. and investments between $150,000–$325,000. The company plans 45 new global locations by year-end, including markets like Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and India. The business operates jointly with BJJ Link for platform tools.

• Expansion Deals: Club Pilates expanded into Australia via a deal with Riser Fitness, with plans for 40 new studios in four years. Total expansion in collaboration with Riser includes entry into Mexico, with at least 65 new locations. Funding is supported by strategic investment from XPOF and operators like Matt Gordin.

• Acquisition and Campus Model: Bay Club acquired 425 Fitness locations in the Seattle area for its campus-based strategy. The deal reinforces Bay Club's Pacific Northwest presence, combining properties for a holistic member experience under a new management group backing.

• Tariff Impact: Last week's discussion highlighted challenges for companies like LULU, OLLI, and FIVE. Common themes included tariff mitigation through strategic pricing and sourcing changes to reduce Chinese dependency, with risks related to global supply issues and macroeconomic factors.

• Earnings and Stock Performance:

  • LULU reported mixed first-quarter results with Americas revenue growth of 3%, lagging expectations due to weak mall traffic and inventory issues. The stock received an Underperform rating.
  • OLLI is recommended with a Hold rating, though the report notes early growth potential and loyalty enhancements, but flagged competitive risks.
  • Upcoming targets noted include Five Below (Buy), KKR (Buy), and Xponential Fitness (Buy), each contingent on specific factors like performance fees or macro headwinds.

• Overall Sector Risks: Market trends face challenges from slowing consumer S&S activity, regional economic pressures, and competition in fitness and retail. Valuations— combining DCF, P/E, and EV/EBITDA—were provided with price targets, coupled with risks such as currency fluctuations and operational hurdles.

The written analysis, authored by analysts for factual accuracy without compensation ties, finished with privacy and compliance notes per rigorous regulatory disclosures. Key recommendations emphasize growth potential but with caution for susceptible firms to macro changes.