2025+年贸易和发展报告_濒临危机——贸易_金融与全球经济重塑_196页_19mb

报告摘要

Slowing Growth: Global growth is projected at 2.6% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, hampered by trade tariffs, monetary policy divergence, and financial tightening (Chapter I). Developing economies are expected to grow 4.5% (2025) and 5.0% (2026).
Trade Volatility: Tariff hikes (e.g., U.S. policies) and policy uncertainty have disrupted supply chains, reducing global trade resilience despite service sector growth. Regional trade (North-North) dominates, but South-South trade remains underutilized (Chapter IV).
Financialization Risks: Commodity trading firms act as financial intermediaries, leading to systemic risks like contagion and liquidity squeezes (Chapter III). The dollar's dominance exacerbates external financing gaps for developing countries (Chapter IV).

Currency Dynamics: The dollar's role in global payments and reserves persists, but its share in reserves fell to 56% in 2024 (Chapter IV). Central banks are exploring alternatives to reduce dependency (Chapter V).
Structural Shifts: Trade finance increasingly relies on structured finance and derivatives, creating vulnerabilities. Non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) like commodity traders amplify risks (Chapter III).
Digital and Service Trade: Services trade (e.g., India, China) outpaces goods, but the global South remains underrepresented (Chapter IV). Climate-change-related disruptions threaten this growth (Chapter V).

Costs and Debt: Least developed countries (V20) face $5.5T in climate mitigation costs by 2030, straining debt sustainability (Chapter V). Climate debt traps hinder resilience.
Green Finance: Official development assistance (ODA) has declined, needing reforms to meet climate goals (New Collective Quantified Goal: $1.3T by 2035). Domestic revenue mobilization and tax reforms are critical (Chapter V).

Networked Multilateralism: Strengthen global cooperation (WTO reforms, climate finance goals) to address fragmentation and unequal access to finance (Chapter V). Propose a "borrowers’ platform" to manage sovereign debt.
Domestic Resilience: Enhance financial infrastructure (e.g., regional payment systems), diversify trade partnerships, and phase out fossil fuel subsidies (Chapter IV).
Green Structural Transformation: Align development and climate policies to drive job creation in sustainable sectors (Chapter V).

Short-Term: Monitor financial market liquidity and coordinate macroprudential policies to mitigate trade and finance spillovers.
Medium-Term: Expand regional trade agreements (e.g., African FTA) and green industrial policies (Chapter V).
Long-Term: Reforms of the international financial architecture, including SDR-based currencies, and inclusive climate finance mechanisms (Chapter V).