20230808-德邦证券-行业投资框架系列之九_经济转型下的消费新特征_15页_878kb

Summary:

The report analyzes the impact of demographic changes, real estate dynamics, and consumption upgrades on the economy, drawing lessons from Japan's experience and applying them to China.

Key Findings:

• Demographic Structure Changes: Based on Japan's population decline, negative growth leads to a significant slowing of private consumption growth and reduced economic拉动. Mandatory consumption remains resilient, while healthcare spending grows rapidly due to aging, whereas young-demand driven areas like housing and apparel slow down. For China, demographic negative growth and aging may similar effects, but short-term impacts are less severe due to lower urbanization rates and policies promoting common prosperity, which could boost overall consumption.

• Real Estate's Role in Consumption: Real estate's post-cycle consumption pull is weakening. With abundant urban housing supply and declining demand from fewer births and aging, the sector faces a slowdown into a stock phase. Ongoing regulatory measures, like "three red lines" and land supply controls, signal a shift to new development models, reducing its stabilizing role on growth.

• Consumption Upgrade: Ongoing trends include post-pandemic boosts in "stay-at-home economy" and domestic tourism, increasing online food delivery's share and shifting to shorter trips. Additionally, digital consumption expands with 5G adoption, fostering new consumer patterns as a key growth driver.

Risk Considerations:

• Lower-than-expected policy support from the industry.
• Potential risks from orderly withdrawal of macroeconomic policies.
• Uncertainty from possible resurgences of health issues affecting economic activities.