【麦肯锡】2025年全球保险业报告追求增长_65页_2mb

Global Insurance Report 2025: The Pursuit of Growth Summary

Core Content

The Global Insurance Report 2025 highlights the challenges and opportunities for personal and commercial property and casualty (P&C) insurers, as well as life carriers, in navigating a volatile global market. The report emphasizes the need for innovation, adaptation, and strategic focus to achieve profitable growth in a landscape shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation, interest rate fluctuations, geopolitical instability, and evolving consumer behavior.

Main Points

Personal Lines P&C: Opportunities Amid Challenges

• Growth Overview: Personal lines P&C premiums grew by 9.5% in 2022–23, reaching $1.1 trillion, outpacing nominal GDP growth by half a percentage point.
• Relevance and Coverage Gaps: Despite growth, personal lines' relevance (GDDPW as a share of GDP) remains below prepandemic levels. The coverage gap between mature and emerging economies has widened.
• Market Dynamics:
  • Growth in mature markets is primarily driven by rate increases, with limited expansion into new risks.
  • In emerging economies, personal lines growth lags GDP growth by 5 percentage points, with relevance below 0.5% of GDP.
• Key Drivers of Growth:
  • Auto and home insurance dominate premium growth.
  • Natural disasters and physical risk are increasing in frequency and severity, raising claims costs.
  • Reinsurance costs have risen, especially in the U.S., making coverage more expensive for carriers.
• Emerging Markets:
  • Several Latin American and Asian economies are on the verge of expanding insurance relevance, creating opportunities for granular growth.
  • Demographic shifts, such as an aging population, and changing customer behavior offer chances for rethinking offerings.
• Technology and Innovation:
  • AI and generative AI are enabling reimagining the value chain.
  • Distribution is evolving, with insurance being embedded into broader goods and services purchases.
  • New mobility models (e.g., electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles) are reshaping the auto insurance landscape and require carriers to rethink distribution, pricing, product design, and claims processing.

Commercial P&C: Finding Growth Beyond Rate Increases

• Growth Trends:
  • Commercial P&C premiums grew 8% annually over the past five years.
  • The combined ratio for the industry decreased to 91% in 2023, indicating improved profitability.
• Operational Performance:
  • Financial performance is more dependent on how insurers operate than where they operate.
  • Execution is key to achieving sustainable, profitable growth.
• Market Focus:
  • Growth is concentrated among core, at-scale players.
  • Innovators and targeted players are also exploring opportunities through specialized products, marketing, and distribution strategies.

Life Insurance: Embracing a Changing Landscape

• Industry Outlook:
  • The life and retirement insurance industry has experienced mixed signals, with resilient macroeconomic conditions and positive equity markets.
  • However, overall relevance remains a challenge.
• Demographic Shifts:
  • The aging population (the "silver" demographic) and concentration of wealth among Gen X and retirees are reshaping the market.
• Changing Consumer Behavior:
  • Non-traditional family structures (e.g., fewer marriages, dual-income households) are challenging traditional life insurance models.
  • This shift presents opportunities for more flexible policies.
• Opportunities for Growth:
  • The industry is evolving to cater to new needs and differentiate offerings.

Key Information

• Global Insurance Relevance: Personal lines represent 1.0% of global GDP in 2023, compared to 1.2% in 2019.
• U.S. Growth Outlook: Personal lines premiums are expected to grow 11% annually through 2025, with a decline in combined ratios.
• Insurance Affordability:
  • Rising asset prices and repair costs have increased the cost of coverage.
  • In the U.S., home insurance now represents 1.2% of household income, up from 1.0% in 2019.
• EV and AV Impact:
  • EV adoption is expected to reach 15% of global vehicles in 2030 and 30% by 2035.
  • EVs may increase average claim size due to higher component costs.
  • Partial automation is expected to reach 35% of vehicles by 2030 and over 50% by 2035.
• Market Fragmentation:
  • The home insurance market is more fragmented, offering opportunities for differentiation.
  • In Germany, non-top 10 carriers captured 42% of premium growth and 32% of pretax income over the past four years.
  • In the U.S., the top five carriers captured 63% of premium growth and 72% of pretax income.

Conclusion

The Global Insurance Report 2025 underscores that while the insurance industry faces challenges in affordability, relevance, and risk management, there are clear opportunities for innovation and growth. The report recommends that carriers focus on operational excellence, technological advancement, and market differentiation to drive sustainable and profitable growth. Emerging markets and evolving demographics are key areas for expansion, especially as the mobility and climate landscapes continue to shift.