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In Gold We Trust Report 2025 Summary

Core Content

The In Gold We Trust (IGWT) Report 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of gold, silver, and mining stocks, emphasizing their roles in a changing economic landscape marked by structural debt and negative real interest rates. It outlines the long-term trends, central bank demand, and investment opportunities in the precious metals sector.

Main Points and Key Insights

1. The Big Long!

• Gold's Role: The report highlights the potential for a long-term bull market in gold, referred to as “The Big Long”, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and central bank demand.
• Central Bank Purchases: Central banks have continued to increase gold purchases for the third consecutive year, with over 1,000 tonnes acquired, signaling strong institutional confidence.
• Gold vs. Real Yields: Gold has decoupled from real yields, maintaining strong performance even as yields decline, indicating its role as a safe-haven asset.
• Gold Returns and Yield Trends: A strong correlation is observed between gold returns and the change in US 10Y TIPS yields, with gold outperforming during periods of rising rates.
• New 60/40 Portfolio: A new portfolio combining gold, miners, commodities, and Bitcoin outperforms the traditional 60/40 portfolio, showcasing the shift in investment strategy.

2. Gold's Performance

• Annual Returns (2000–2025): Gold has shown consistent growth in various currencies, with notable performance in USD, EUR, and JPY.
• Long-Term Gains: Gold has rewarded long-term holders with strong gains, especially during periods of economic stress.
• Physical Demand: Physical gold demand has surged, with COMEX deliveries hitting multi-year highs, indicating growing investor interest.
• Gold Price in Labor Time: The price of gold in terms of labor hours has reached a multi-decade high, highlighting its increasing unaffordability.
• Tech Stocks vs. Gold: The NASDAQ 100/Gold ratio has hit multi-year lows, showing gold's outperformance against tech stocks.
• Home Prices in Gold: US new home prices expressed in gold have fallen further below their historic median, reinforcing gold's value proposition.
• Gold's Momentum: Gold has gathered momentum, with the potential to enter a historic bull run and achieve "The Big Long."

3. Silver's Status Quo

• Silver as a Monetary Metal: Milton Friedman notes that silver, not gold, is the major monetary metal in history.
• Annual Performance (2000–2025): Silver has shown mixed returns across currencies, with notable volatility but long-term growth.
• Physical Demand: COMEX silver deliveries have increased significantly, signaling rising physical demand.
• Historic Price vs. Value: The Gold/Silver ratio suggests that silver may still have room for upside despite historic price levels.
• Silver Volatility: Silver's swings offer opportunities for tactical outperformance, especially relative to gold.

4. Mining Shares Overview

• Investment Diversification: The report explores various types of gold investments, including stocks, ETFs, and physical bullion, highlighting their unique characteristics.
• Market Capitalization: The mining industry's market cap is analyzed, showing that gold remains dominant.
• Miners vs. Gold: While miners still trail gold, the gap is narrowing, with miner ETFs indicating emerging momentum.
• Large Caps Outperform Juniors: Large-cap mining stocks have outperformed junior companies, but gold remains the top performer.
• HUI Index: The HUI index, which tracks gold mining stocks, has shown a consistent underperformance relative to gold.

Key Takeaways

• Gold's Dominance: Gold has consistently outperformed in various currencies and has shown resilience during economic downturns.
• Central Bank Support: Continued central bank purchases reinforce gold's status as a safe-haven asset.
• Silver's Potential: Despite volatility, silver has long-term growth potential and is gaining traction in the market.
• Mining ETFs and Stocks: Mining stocks and ETFs are important components of a diversified portfolio, with different risk and reward profiles.
• Investment Strategy: The report suggests a shift in investment paradigms, emphasizing gold and related assets as key components of a resilient portfolio.

Conclusion

The In Gold We Trust Report 2025 underscores the growing importance of gold and silver in a global economic environment marked by structural debt and negative real interest rates. With central banks, ETFs, and physical demand all contributing to a bullish trend, the report positions gold as a critical asset for long-term investment. Silver, while volatile, also shows potential for growth, and mining stocks remain a vital part of the precious metals investment universe.