2000年-世界发展银行全球_Managing_Fiscal_Risk_in_Bulgaria_50页_3mb

Managing Fiscal Risk in Bulgaria

Core Content

This working paper from the World Bank provides an in-depth analysis of fiscal risks in Bulgaria, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive framework to assess and manage these risks. The authors highlight that traditional fiscal analysis often overlooks "hidden" fiscal risks, such as contingent liabilities and off-budget obligations, which can significantly impact a country's fiscal stability.

Main Views

• Fiscal Risk Framework: The paper introduces a Fiscal Risk Matrix to categorize fiscal risks into direct (obligation in any event) and contingent (obligation if a particular event occurs), with both explicit and implicit liabilities.
• Currency Board Arrangement (CBA): The CBA has imposed fiscal discipline on Bulgaria, but it limits the government's ability to manage fiscal shocks by restricting access to domestic and external financing options.
• Fiscal Vulnerability: Fiscal vulnerability is defined as the government's exposure to the possibility of failing to achieve fiscal policy objectives, considering both current fiscal position and future risks.
• Debt Structure and Risks: Bulgaria's debt structure is dominated by foreign debt, with nearly half in Brady bonds. The external debt service ratio is projected to remain high, around 20-22% of exports, and interest rate risk is substantial.
• Transition Costs and Reforms: The implementation of pension and health reforms is expected to increase fiscal pressures, with potential pension deficits reaching 2.7% of GDP without reform and health expenditures rising from 4% to over 6% of GDP.
• Environmental Liabilities: Environmental liabilities, including past damages and future clean-up costs, are a major source of fiscal risk, with total environmental expenditures expected to reach $8.5 billion by 2015.
• Contingent Liabilities: Bulgaria's contingent liabilities are relatively modest, with state guarantees accounting for about 17% of GDP. However, the risk of fiscal losses from these liabilities is growing.

Key Information

Fiscal Risk Matrix

Fiscal Position and Risks

• Current Fiscal Position: Bulgaria's fiscal position is relatively stable, with a budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP in 1997 and expected to remain below 1.5% of GDP in 1999.
• Revenue Performance: General government revenues increased from 31.7% of GDP in 1997 to 36.8% in 1998 and an estimated 38% in 1999, showing resilience to economic shocks.
• Expenditure Trends: Expenditures are rising, reaching 39.5% of GDP in 1999, with a significant portion allocated to social protection, debt service, and wages.
• Reserves and Contingency: Bulgaria maintains fiscal reserves at around 8% of GDP, which serve as a contingency instrument. However, high reserves come at the cost of reduced investment and growth opportunities.

Fiscal Challenges

• Debt Management: The government must balance fiscal discipline with the need for investment and growth, especially in the context of EU accession.
• Risk Mitigation: The paper recommends several strategies to manage fiscal risks, including mitigating currency and interest rate risks, institutional reforms in pension and health systems, building contingency reserves, and introducing risk-sharing arrangements.
• Policy Recommendations: Immediate and medium-term measures are proposed to address the main sources of fiscal risk, including improving the capacity to analyze and manage risks, and establishing a more integrated fiscal risk management framework.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while Bulgaria's fiscal position appears stable, the country is exposed to significant fiscal risks that could threaten its economic and social development. A balanced approach to fiscal risk management, integrating reserves, debt management, and risk mitigation, is essential to ensure sustainable fiscal performance and support growth and development goals.