2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_Transparency_Accountability_and_Risk_54页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Document: Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Risk

Core Content

This document discusses the importance of fiscal transparency in effective fiscal policymaking and the management of fiscal risks. It outlines the need to improve international standards and practices for fiscal transparency, particularly in light of the global financial crisis, and highlights the role of national, regional, and international institutions in monitoring and promoting these standards.

Main Points

1. Definition of Fiscal Transparency

• Fiscal transparency refers to the clarity, reliability, frequency, timeliness, and relevance of public fiscal reporting, as well as the openness of the government's fiscal policy-making process to the public.
• It is essential for informed decision-making, accountability, and international surveillance.

2. Why Fiscal Transparency Matters

• Fiscal transparency is a key predictor of fiscal credibility and performance.
• It correlates with fiscal sustainability (e.g., deficits, debts) and market perceptions of fiscal solvency (e.g., credit default swap spreads, credit ratings).
• Fiscal obfuscation (e.g., hiding deficits and debts) can increase perceived sovereign default risk.

3. Challenges in Fiscal Transparency

• Despite progress, gaps and inconsistencies in fiscal transparency standards persist.
• These include:
  • Limited coverage of public institutions.
  • Inadequate treatment of assets and liabilities.
  • Poor reporting of transactions and economic flows.
  • Inconsistent frequency and timeliness of fiscal reporting.
  • Weak fiscal forecasting and risk analysis.
  • Discrepancies between forecast and actual data.

4. Impact of the Financial Crisis

• The crisis exposed significant shortcomings in fiscal transparency, particularly in understanding the true fiscal position and risks.
• Many governments underestimated the scale and likelihood of fiscal shocks, especially those related to the financial sector.
• Hidden obligations and cash-based accounting systems contributed to underreporting of fiscal deficits and debts.

5. Sources of Fiscal Risk

• The most common sources of fiscal risk include:
  • Macroeconomic shocks to budgeted revenue and spending.
  • Quasi-fiscal activities.
  • Extrabudgetary spending.
  • Government guarantees.
  • Social security obligations.
• Institutional sources of risk include:
  • Public corporations.
  • Social security institutions.
  • The financial sector.
  • Subnational governments.

Key Information

6. Improvements in Fiscal Transparency

• Over the past 15 years, there has been a global effort to develop and implement internationally accepted standards for fiscal transparency.
• The IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code and Manual, along with the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM), have played a central role in this development.
• The Open Budget Survey (OBS) by the International Budget Partnership (IBP) has contributed to the measurement of budget transparency, covering over 100 countries.

7. Gaps in Implementation

• Only 55 out of 182 countries had fully adopted GFSM 2001 by 2010.
• Less than 20 countries had fully adopted IPSAS, IFRS, or similar standards.
• The number of IMF fiscal ROSCs (Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes) has declined from 21 in 2002 to just one in 2011, reflecting reduced monitoring efforts.

8. Recommendations for Improvement

• Update Standards: Enhance coverage of public institutions, broaden reporting of assets and liabilities, and improve the frequency and timeliness of fiscal reporting.
• Refine Fiscal Forecasting and Risk Analysis: Adopt a more rigorous approach to forecasting and risk assessment, ensuring consistency between forecast and actual data.
• Align Budgets, Statistics, and Accounts: Promote harmonization of methodologies across fiscal reporting, budgeting, and statistical systems.
• Strengthen Monitoring and Incentives: Develop more effective monitoring mechanisms at the national, regional, and international levels, including:
  • Strengthening national and regional transparency institutions.
  • Improving multilateral coordination and monitoring.
  • Updating the IMF Fiscal Transparency Code and Manual to reflect new standards and practices.

Conclusion

• A revitalized international effort is needed to address the gaps in fiscal transparency standards and practices, especially in light of the lessons learned from the financial crisis.
• Enhancing fiscal transparency is crucial for maintaining fiscal credibility, managing risks, and ensuring informed public and market participation in fiscal decision-making.