20150717-新鸿基金融集团-NVESTMENT_DAILY_DAILY_13页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, highlighting key trends, sector performance, and investment opportunities. It also includes information on interest rates, exchange rates, precious metals, commodities, and the A-share premium to H-share, along with the top traded ETFs.

Main Points

Market Highlights

A-share index futures will be settled today, which may lead to increased market volatility. Investors are advised to focus on portfolio risk management.
Hundsun Technologies Inc has closed its HOMS system to new account openings. Hithink Flush and Mecrt have also suspended online margin financing through informal channels, indicating a return to normal trading conditions.
Greek bailout deal was passed by the Greek parliament, but it did not significantly impact the China and Hong Kong stock markets.
China property stocks rose due to a 32.1% increase in national property sales in June. China Overseas and China Resources Land were up nearly 4.3%, while Shui On Land rose 7% on news of a potential acquisition by Vanke.
Airline stocks performed well, with China Eastern Airlines surging 9.4% due to expectations of a significant increase in net profits for the first half of 2015.

Trends of HSI and HSCEI

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) hovered around 25,100.
The HSCEI is facing resistance from its 250-day moving average.

Key Information

Stock in Focus: ZTE (763.HK)

Last Close: HK$18.40
Entry: HK$18.00
Target: HK$23.00
Stop-loss: HK$15.30
YTD/1M/3M/12M % Change: +31% / -10.9% / -4.0% / +35.8%
Market Cap: HK$13.9bn
3M Average Daily Volume: 8.576mn shares
FY1 Forward P/E: 16.8X

Reason for Focus:

ZTE is a major player in communications equipment and is involved in IoT and smart city developments.
The company is developing Pre5G technology and has partnerships with China Mobile and Deutsche Telekom.
ZTE is expected to benefit from the global IoT market growth, with a report estimating 50bn terminals connected to the IoT by 2020.
ZTE and MTN Group launched an IoT platform in late June, marking progress in overseas market development.

Today's Top Picks

FB Mining (2212)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$1.68
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$2.00
- Stop-loss Price: HK$1.50
- Reason: Trading activity is gradually increasing and the trend is bullish.
Unity Inv Hold (913)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$0.245
- Purchase Price: Current price
- Target Price: HK$0.280
- Stop-loss Price: HK$0.220
- Reason: The stock price broke above the 20-day moving average, suggesting potential for further gains.

Sector Performance Overview

Top Performing Sectors (1D % change)

Airline: 3.7%
Chinese Property: 3.2%
Handset and related accessories: 2.8%
Infrastructure: 2.5%
IPP: 2.1%
Technology: 2.0%
Environmental and New Energy: 1.9%
Medical: 1.8%
Steel: 1.7%
Automobile: 1.7%
Durable Consumables: 1.6%
Marine: 1.6%
Agriculture: 1.5%
Telecoms Equipment: 1.5%
Sports accessories: 1.3%

Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors

Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China Eastern Air (670), Air China (753), China Southern Air (1055)
Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
IPP: China Res Power (836), Huaneng Power Int'l (902), Datang Int'l Power (991), Huadian Power Int'l (1071), China Power Int'l (2380)
Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)
Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
Medical: Trad Chi Med (570), Sinopharm (1099), Sino Biopharm (1177), Fosun Pharma (2196), SH Pharma (2607)
Steel: Angang Steel (347), Maanshan Iron (323), Shougang Res (639)
Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
Durable Consumables: Welling Hldg. (382), Skyworth Digital (751), Hisense Kelon Elec (921), TCL Multimedia (1070)
Marine: OOIL (316), Sinotrans Ship (368), Cosco Pacific (1199), Pacific Basin (2343), CSCL (2866)
Agriculture: First Tractor (38), Sinofert (297), Ko Yo Group (827), National Agri (1236), China Bluechem (3983)
Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
Sports accessories: 361 Degrees (1361), Xtep Int'l (1368), Peak Sport (1968), Anta Sports (2020), Li Ning (2331)

Market Valuations

Forward P/E and Valuations of Major Indices

Index	FY15E P/E (X)	Long-term avg. Fwd. P/E (X)	Deviation from avg. (%)	FY1 EPS growth (%)	FY2 EPS growth (%)
Hang Seng Index	12.1	11.4	5.7	-14.0	10.0
HSCEI	8.4	8.9	-5.8	0.8	10.2
Shanghai Comp	15.9	11.1	43.5	22.3	13.3
S&P 500	17.9	14.4	24.8	4.4	11.8

Market Data

Previous Day's Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers:

LIVZON PHARM-H (1513.HK): +14.4%
COOLPAD (2369.HK): +13.4%
CHINA EAST AIR-H (670.HK): +9.4%
HONGHUA GROUP (196.HK): +9.2%
SHUI ON LAND (272.HK): +7.2%

Worst Performers:

LANDING INTERNAT (582.HK): -12.9%
OZNER WATER (2014.HK): -5.4%
GOLDPAC GROUP (3315.HK): -5.0%
HYDOO INTERNATIO (1396.HK): -4.3%
GOLDIN FINANCIAL (530.HK): -3.3%

HSCI Volume Filter

LIVZON PHARM-H (1513.HK): 284.2% increase in volume
CHINA EAST AIR-H (670.HK): 150.7% increase in volume
CHINA SHENGMU OR (1432.HK): 141.4% increase in volume
HONGHUA GROUP (196.HK): 112.0% increase in volume
SHUI ON LAND (272.HK): 92.5% increase in volume

Most Short Sold Stocks

TCL COMM TECH HL (2618.HK): 141.4% increase in short sell turnover
LI NING CO LTD (2331.HK): 141.4% increase in short sell turnover
CHINA ZHENGTONG (1728.HK): 100.3% increase in short sell turnover
CHINA COAL ENE-H (1898.HK): 137.8% increase in short sell turnover
CHINA OILFIELD-H (2883.HK): 115.0% increase in short sell turnover

External Market Conditions

Interest Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: 0.6572% (up 2.02 bps in 5D)
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 2.3558% (down 4.14 bps in 5D)
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield: 3.1122% (down 7.77 bps in 5D)
HK 1-month HIBOR: 0.2369% (down 0.21 bps in 5D)
HK 3-month HIBOR: 0.3867% (down 0.07 bps in 5D)

Exchange Rates

USD Dollar Index: 97.6390 (up 1.7% in 5D)
USD/HKD: 7.7509 (no change in 5D)
EUR/USD: 1.0881 (down 2.6% in 5D)
USD/JPY: 124.14 (down 1.1% in 5D)
GBP/USD: 1.5609 (up 0.6% in 5D)
USD/CHF: 0.9574 (down 2.0% in 5D)
AUD/USD: 0.7413 (down 0.5% in 5D)
NZD/USD: 0.6521 (down 3.0% in 5D)
USD/CAD: 1.2969 (down 2.4% in 5D)
USD/CNY: 6.2112 (no change in 5D)
USD/CNH: 6.2143 (down 0.2% in 5D)

Precious Metals and Commodities

CRB Index: 215.6 (down 0.9% in 5D)
Comex Gold: $1,143.4 (down 1.3% in 5D)
Comex Silver: $14.965 (down 3.3% in 5D)
Nymex WTI Crude: $51.01 (down 3.3% in 5D)
ICE Brent Crude: $57.08 (down 2.8% in 5D)
LME Copper: 5560 (down 1.2% in 5D)
LME Aluminum: 1716 (up 0.9% in 5D)
CBT Wheat: 560.75 (down 2.6% in 5D)
CBT Corn: 428.25 (down 1.5% in 5D)
CBT Soybean: 1020.00 (down 1.2% in 5D)

A-share Premium to H-share

Company	H share code	Price (HK$)	A share code	Price (RMB)	A-share premium to H-share (%)
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H	1057	15.38	002703	52.01	322.1
SINOPEC OILFIE-H	1033	2.51	600871	7.69	282.3
LUOYANG GLASS-H	1108	4.07	600876	12.11	271.3
ZOOMLION HEAVY-H	1157	4.20	000157	6.16	83.0
CHINA SHENHUA-H	1088	15.40	601088	20.12	63.0
SINOPEC CORP-H	386	6.20	600028	7.11	43.1
CHINA LIFE-H	2628	31.15	601628	32.78	31.3
CHINA VANKE-H	2202	19.00	000002	14.70	-3.5
JIANGSU EXPRESS-H	177	10.16	600377	7.76	-4.7

Top 20 Most Traded ETFs

ETF Code	ETF Name	Price (HK$)	1D chg (%)	5D chg (%)
2822	CSOP FTSE CH-HKD	15.26	0.93	1.46
2823	ISHADES FTSE A50	13.30	1.22	-0.89
2800	TRACKER FUND HK	25.75	0.39	3.00
2828	HS H-SHARE ETF	119.70	0.50	2.57
3188	CHINAAMC 300-HKD	50.80	2.32	6.05
82822	CSOP FTSE CH-RMB	12.24	0.66	1.49
3010	ISHARE-ASIA APEX	43.70	0.00	-

Summary

This document provides a comprehensive summary of the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, including key indices, sector performance, and individual stock highlights. It emphasizes the importance of portfolio risk management due to the upcoming settlement of A-share index futures and outlines the potential for growth in sectors such as airlines, property, and technology. ZTE is highlighted as a key stock due to its role in IoT and smart city development. The A-share premium to H-share is noted for several major companies, indicating market sentiment and investment opportunities. Additionally, it offers insights into external market conditions, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities, providing a well-rounded view for investors.