2009年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Benin_6页_320kb

Benin—Assessment Letter for Donors Summary

Core Content

This document is an assessment letter from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to donors regarding Benin's macroeconomic developments and the progress of its fiscal and structural reforms in the context of the global economic crisis.

Recent Macroeconomic Developments

• Economic Growth: Real GDP growth is projected to decline from 5.0% in 2008 to 2.5% in 2009 and 3.0% in 2010 due to weak cotton production and trade with neighboring countries.
• Inflation: Inflation is decreasing, primarily due to lower agricultural prices from a good cereal harvest and declining international food and fuel prices.
• Current Account Deficit: The external current account deficit, excluding grants, is expected to widen to about 13% of GDP in 2009, driven by the decline in cotton exports and expansionary fiscal policy.

Fiscal Situation

• Fiscal Deterioration: The fiscal situation deteriorated significantly in the first half of 2009, with a 5% decline in revenues and a 35% increase in the wage bill.
• Capital Spending: Domestic capital spending nearly tripled due to a CFAF 81 billion carryover from 2008.
• Deficit: Expenditure slippages amounted to about 4% of GDP, leading to a significant increase in the overall deficit and pressure on the treasury.

Government Measures

• Adjustment Measures: In the second half of 2009, the government implemented measures to redress the public financial situation, including:
  • Limiting civil servant bonuses and benefits.
  • Regularizing exceptional payment procedures.
  • Strengthening budget execution monitoring.
  • Reviewing and paying outstanding government bills.
  • Adopting an emergency plan to improve tax revenue.
• Donor Support: Additional donor support was mobilized to reduce the financing gap, totaling CFAF 83.5 billion (2.7% of GDP).
• Cash Deficit: Despite these efforts, the overall cash deficit (excluding grants) is expected to reach 10.1% of GDP in 2009.

2010 Budget and Fiscal Policy

• Draft Budget: The draft 2010 budget was deemed optimistic by Fund staff and not discussed with them. It projected a 36% increase in revenues compared to the revised 2009 estimates.
• Revised Fiscal Policy: A revised fiscal policy for 2010 was agreed upon, projecting a more prudent 19% increase in revenues to CFAF 686.7 billion (20.7% of GDP).
• Expenditure: Expenditure is limited to CFAF 883.2 billion (26.6% of GDP), including CFAF 50 billion carryover from 2009.
• Cash Deficit: The overall cash deficit (excluding grants) is projected to decline to CFAF 213.9 billion (6.5% of GDP), an improvement from 2009's 10.1%.
• Financing Needs: A financing need of CFAF 165 billion (5% of GDP) is expected, with an additional CFAF 50 billion yet to be identified.

Structural Reforms

• Completed Reforms: The following structural reforms were completed:
  • Financial audit of the electricity company (SBEE) and provision of the report to Fund staff.
  • Extension of the single taxpayer identification number (IFU) to all importers, exporters, and major companies.
  • Operationalization of data interconnection between the tax and customs departments.
• Ongoing Reforms: Two outstanding measures from the previous PRGF arrangement are expected to be completed with delays:
  • Expansion of the ASYCUDA++ system to 12 additional customs posts by August 2010.
  • Adoption of an informatization blueprint for the DGID to operationalize the IFU by September 2010.
• Other Reforms: The one-stop window (guichet unique) at customs and the Port of Cotonou is expected to be completed by end-June 2010, following the implementation of a management information system for port operators.

Future Steps

• IMF Arrangement: The authorities and IMF staff agreed to negotiate an economic and financial program in March 2010 that could be supported by an IMF arrangement.
• Letter to Partners: The government requested the IMF to send an assessment letter to its technical and financial partners to reassure them of its efforts to consolidate public finances and pursue structural reforms.

Key Information

• IMF Support: The IMF approved an augmentation of access of 15% of quota (about $15 million) in June 2009 and provided a general SDR allocation of $77 million in August 2009.
• Fiscal Targets: The revised fiscal policy aims to avoid a new accumulation of outstanding payables and credit carryovers.
• Deficit Projections: The basic primary deficit is projected at CFAF 12.4 billion (0.4% of GDP), and the overall cash-basis deficit at CFAF 213.9 billion (6.5% of GDP).

Conclusion

The document outlines the challenges faced by Benin's economy due to the global economic crisis, the measures taken by the government to stabilize the fiscal situation, and the revised fiscal policy for 2010. It emphasizes the importance of prudent fiscal management, structural reforms, and continued donor support to ensure macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability.