2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_South_Sudan_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_82页_2mb

Summary of the 2016 Article IV Consultation for South Sudan

Core Content

The 2016 Article IV Consultation report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlines the economic and political challenges facing South Sudan, particularly in the aftermath of civil conflict and external shocks. It emphasizes the need for fiscal and monetary reforms to restore macroeconomic stability and improve the country's economic outlook.

Main Viewpoints

Economic Challenges

• South Sudan has faced a severe economic crisis due to civil conflict, which began in late 2013, and the sharp decline in oil prices starting in late 2014.
• Real GDP growth declined by nearly 20 percent in the two years through 2015/16, and inflation peaked at 550 percent in September 2016.
• The country's oil production fell by about 40 percent from pre-conflict levels, contributing to a significant drop in government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
• The conflict also severely impacted the non-oil sector, leading to a decline in food production and exacerbating food insecurity and refugee flows.
• The South Sudanese pound lost over 95 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar since December 2015, and international reserves fell to about one week of import cover by December 2016.

Humanitarian Crisis

• The conflict has caused thousands of deaths and displaced over 2 million people internally.
• Famine was declared in some areas, and the humanitarian situation remains dire.
• The relapse into violence in July 2016 further worsened the crisis and derailed the peace process.

Fiscal and Monetary Policies

• The government has taken steps to address the fiscal deficit, including the adoption of a new 2016/17 budget with bold fiscal measures.
• The budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 2-3 percent of GDP, aligning with a return to single-digit inflation and exchange rate stability.
• The authorities have stopped monetizing the fiscal deficit and are focusing on improving public financial management.
• The IMF urges the government to implement revenue measures and spending cuts, and to reduce domestic financing to sustainable levels.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• The central bank has been urged to combat inflation by refraining from lending to the government and replenishing international reserves.
• The de jure floating exchange rate system was introduced in December 2015, but the de facto arrangement remained other managed due to continued monetary expansion and exchange rate pressures.
• The parallel market rate rose from around 4 SSP/USD to 17 SSP/USD by late 2015, reflecting the unsustainable nature of the official rate.

Debt Sustainability

• South Sudan is in debt distress despite moderate external debt levels, due to fiscal imbalances, low foreign exchange reserves, and the impact of the civil war.
• Sustainable debt dynamics require progress in peace and political inclusion, as well as effective economic adjustment and reform.

Medium-Term Outlook

• A sustainable medium-term outlook depends on achieving peace, economic stabilization, and renewed access to external financing.
• If peace is achieved, the fiscal deficit could fall to 2-3 percent of GDP, and annual GDP growth could rise to 5-6 percent over the next five years.
• The IMF recommends a shift in government spending from security to development, including infrastructure and human resources.

Key Information

Selected Economic Indicators (2013/14–2016/17)

Fiscal Deficit (2013/14–2016/16)

• Fiscal deficit rose from 3% of GDP in 2013/14 to 31% of GDP in 2015/16.
• Net oil revenue declined from US$2,326 million in 2013/14 to US$509 million in 2015/16.
• Arrears on external and domestic payments rose by 23% of GDP in 2015/16.

Key Recommendations

• Implement fiscal measures to reduce the deficit and improve public financial management.
• Shift government spending from security to development.
• Strengthen revenue collection and minimize leakages.
• Reforms in the domestic oil sector, including removing fuel subsidies and liberalizing the fuel market.
• Improve exchange rate policy and restore international reserves.
• Engage in an inclusive political process to ensure peace dividends are widely shared.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2016 Article IV Consultation with South Sudan on March 15, 2017. The report highlights the urgent need for policy adjustments and political reconciliation to stabilize the economy and improve the humanitarian situation. The success of these efforts will be critical in preventing further economic and security deterioration.