2018年澳大利亚房地产市场展望（英文）_40页-15mb

2018 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Australian real estate market outlook highlights a low for longer economic environment, characterised by stable growth, low inflation, and stable interest rates. The economy is expected to continue performing below long-term averages, with a shift in growth composition from the residential sector to non-mining capital expenditure (CAPEX). This shift presents counter-cyclical investment opportunities, particularly in markets like Brisbane and Perth, which are showing signs of recovery.

Main Market Sectors

Office Sector

• Convergence from divergence is expected to begin in 2018, with declining vacancy rates and improved effective rental growth.
• Sydney and Melbourne are at the peak of their cycle, with slower rental growth.
• Brisbane and Perth are anticipated to recover, driven by improved economic conditions and strong demand.
• Technology is becoming a key disruptor, with a focus on smart buildings, mobility, and customised work environments.
• Canberra continues to show improvement with sub-10% vacancy in prime stock and NER growth of ~7%.

Logistics & Industrial Sector

• Omnichannel real estate is emerging as a key trend due to the rise of e-commerce.
• High-tech manufacturing is expected to drive growth, especially in locations with skilled workforces like Melbourne's South East and Sydney's Macquarie Park.
• Last-mile warehousing is anticipated to expand as major multinational retailers enter the market and customer expectations for faster delivery increase.
• Secondary warehouse spaces are being repurposed for logistics use, which may lead to yield compression in these assets.

Retail Sector

• The retail sector is expected to experience weaker growth in 2018 due to structural and cyclical headwinds.
• Experience and convenience are becoming central to consumer preferences, driving the need for omnichannel retail models.
• Retailers are transitioning to more food, service, and entertainment-focused spaces.
• Consumer spending is constrained by weak income growth and low wage increases, limiting retail sector expansion.

Hotel Sector

• Supply increases in Melbourne may hamper growth, while Brisbane and Perth are expected to rebound.
• The hotel investment market saw a decline in transaction volume in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue in 2018.
• Investors are turning to counter-cyclical markets such as Brisbane and Perth, which are at the bottom of the cycle.

Residential Sector

• The apartment development cycle has peaked, leading to increased vacancy and price reductions.
• Sydney and Melbourne are at risk of price declines of 5-10% due to high supply and weak demand.
• Perth and Brisbane are expected to see more resilience due to lower vacancy rates and improved conditions.
• Housing construction has contributed less to growth in 2018, with a potential drag on economic performance.

Key Investment Opportunities

• Counter-cyclical markets: Brisbane and Perth are highlighted as attractive for investment due to recovery trends and improving conditions.
• Multifamily assets: Expected to gain traction in the coming years, offering long-term value.
• Healthcare, aged care, and agriculture: These sectors are identified as solid long-term investment strategies.
• Smart buildings and technology integration: A growing trend in office spaces, driven by the need for flexibility, productivity, and customer experience.

Economic Outlook

• The Australian economy is expected to grow at 2.25–2.5% in 2018, below long-run averages.
• Housing activity will detract from growth, while non-mining CAPEX may provide a counterbalance.
• Global interest rates may rise, influencing asset pricing more than domestic monetary policy.
• Geographic economic convergence is ongoing, with states like WA and Queensland outperforming others.

Risks & Challenges

• Residential price declines will impact household wealth and consumer spending.
• High payback costs for advanced automation in industrial and logistics sectors may slow its adoption.
• Shorter leases and rapidly evolving technology pose challenges for long-term investment in automation.
• Structural and cyclical headwinds continue to affect the retail and residential sectors.

Capital Markets

• Yields on real assets are at cyclical lows, with limited room for further compression.
• Capital growth is expected to be gradual, with yield softening likely to occur in 2019.
• Investor focus is shifting towards long-term hold strategies, particularly in counter-cyclical markets.

Conclusion

2018 presents a mix of challenges and opportunities for the Australian real estate market. While the overall economic growth remains subdued, geographic convergence, technology integration, and counter-cyclical investment are key themes. The office, logistics, and industrial sectors are evolving with technology, while the residential market faces a period of correction. Investors are advised to focus on markets with improving fundamentals and to consider alternative asset classes for long-term value.