2018澳大利亚房地产市场展望（英文版）_40页-15mb

2018 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Australian real estate market outlook highlights a low for longer economic environment, characterised by steady, non-accelerating growth and low inflation. This setting is expected to result in stable official interest rates, although global interest rates may rise, potentially affecting asset pricing more significantly than domestic monetary policy. The focus is on geographic economic convergence, counter-cyclical investment opportunities, and technological disruption across property sectors.

Main Viewpoints

Economic Outlook

• The Australian economy is expected to grow slightly below long-run averages in 2018.
• The growth composition is shifting, with housing contributing less and private business investment potentially improving.
• Consumer spending remains low and weak, especially in traditional retail, but services consumption is growing at a healthier rate.
• Non-mining CAPEX has improved, offering a counterbalance to the expected decline in housing activity.
• Global bond yields and interest rates are expected to rise, impacting the AUD and asset pricing.

Market Convergence

• Geographic convergence is occurring, with Brisbane and Perth recovering from weaker performance.
• Sydney and Melbourne are expected to peak in 2018, with rental growth slowing but vacancy rates declining.
• Canberra and Adelaide are showing signs of improvement, with Brisbane becoming a key counter-cyclical investment opportunity.

Key Sectors and Trends

Office Sector

• Convergence from divergence is expected to begin in 2018, with all CBD office markets witnessing declining vacancy rates.
• Sydney and Melbourne will likely see slower NER growth in 2018, while Brisbane and Perth are expected to recover with NER growth of 6-7%.
• Technology is reshaping the office market, with mobility and smart buildings becoming central to demand and supply dynamics.
• Occupiers are increasingly prioritising customer experience, leading to a shift in how office spaces are designed and managed.

Logistics and Industrial Sector

• Omnichannel real estate is emerging as a key trend, driven by e-commerce growth and increased demand for supply chain efficiency.
• High-tech manufacturing is expected to gain traction, reducing space intensity and requiring a skilled workforce.
• Last mile warehousing is anticipated to expand in 2018 as major multinational retailers enter the market.
• Secondary warehouse spaces in major capitals are likely to be repurposed for last mile logistics, leading to yield compression in these assets.

Retail Sector

• The future of retail is shifting towards experience and convenience, with online retail influencing physical retail strategies.
• Weaker growth is expected due to structural and cyclical headwinds, including flat real sales per capita and low income growth.
• Omnichannel retail is becoming necessary, which will increase logistics demand and operational costs.
• Sydney and Melbourne are expected to see slower growth in retail compared to previous peaks, while Brisbane and Perth are showing recovery signs.

Hotel Sector

• Supply increases in Melbourne may hamper growth, while Brisbane and Perth are expected to rebound.
• Hotel investment saw a decline in transaction volume in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue in 2018.
• Brisbane is highlighted as a countercyclical investment opportunity due to improving market conditions and positive economic indicators.

Residential Sector

• The apartment development cycle has peaked, leading to increased vacancy and price reductions.
• Sydney and Melbourne are expected to experience price declines of 5-10%, while Brisbane is better positioned to withstand the downturn.
• Vacancy rates are expected to rise in most markets, with Perth at 7% and Sydney projected to fall to 3.6% by end-2018.
• Residential price contraction will have wealth impact on households, potentially limiting consumer spending.

Capital Markets

• Yields on real assets are at cyclical lows, with limited room for compression in Australian commercial real estate.
• Yield softening is expected to occur in 2019, leading to a gradual decompression cycle.
• Counter-cyclical investment opportunities are emerging, particularly in Brisbane, Canberra, and Perth.
• Multifamily is expected to gain traction as an alternative asset class, alongside healthcare, aged care, and agriculture.

Risks and Opportunities

• Geographic convergence continues to shift relative value in property markets.
• Technology disruption is a major driver, affecting all property sectors differently.
  • Office: Shift to flexible working environments, smart buildings, and mobile technology.
  • Industrial: High-tech manufacturing replacing traditional methods, with automation being adopted cautiously due to high payback costs.
  • Retail: Transition to experiential and convenience-focused models, with logistics space becoming more critical.
• Investors must adapt to occupier demands, especially in office and retail, by offering technology-enabled solutions and flexible spaces.
• Counter-cyclical investment strategies are likely to benefit from market corrections and economic shifts.

Conclusion

The 2018 Australian real estate market is expected to experience geographic convergence, technological transformation, and counter-cyclical investment opportunities. While residential and retail sectors face structural and cyclical headwinds, office and industrial sectors are adapting to new demands and innovations. The overall economic growth is likely to remain below trend, with interest rates stable and global influences playing a more significant role than domestic policy. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies, technology integration, and market-specific opportunities to navigate the evolving landscape.