2025-09-01-IMF-住房繁荣与生产率增长（英）页_23页_1mb

Housing Booms and Productivity Growth in Canada

Background and Methodology

This IMF working paper investigates the relationship between housing booms and productivity growth in Canada, focusing on the collateral channel. The study uses a stylized theoretical model and firm-level empirical data from 2000 to 2023 to analyze how increases in house prices affect business investment, resource allocation, and overall productivity.

Key elements:

• Examines house prices' impact on corporate investment via collateral effects.

• Employs three analytical steps:

  1. Firm productivity vs. initial tangible asset holdings.
  2. House price changes vs. firm investment.
  3. Aggregate industry-level productivity effects.

• Assesses how housing booms disproportionately benefit less productive firms due to easier access to credit via increased collateral.

Key Findings

1. Firm-Level Effects

• Inversely related productivity: Firms with higher initial real estate assets tend to have lower productivity (e.g., -0.131 in models for labor productivity).
• Collateral-dependent SMEs: Canadian SMEs heavily rely on real estate as collateral, limiting their flexibility.

2. Dynamics of Investment

• Housing booms favor asset-rich firms: Real house price increases stimulate investment for firms with more tangible assets but dampen investment for asset-light firms.
• Interaction terms: Statistical evidence (coefficients significant at 1%, p<0.01) confirms this asymmetrical effect.

3. Aggregate Misallocation

• Crowding-out effect: House price increases negatively impact industry productivity where tangible assets dominate (e.g., -52.37 points in industry productivity models).
• Cross-country pattern: Negative correlation between house prices and productivity persists in some advanced economies (Canada, Australia, UK, US), absent only in Germany, Japan, and the US.

Conclusions

• The study confirms the existence of a collateral channel linking housing booms to resource misallocation in Canada.
• While productivity has declined across major economies, housing price dynamics are a significant driver in nations with collateral-dependent credit systems.
• Limitations noted: Insufficient coverage of SMEs (98% of firms), reliance on residential data, and challenges in establishing full causality.