IMF-替代汇率制度下的财政乘数估算——以玻利维亚为例（英）-2023.11-41页_1mb

Executive Summary

This study estimates fiscal multipliers for Bolivia using empirical and theoretical approaches to inform fiscal consolidation strategies under different exchange rate regimes. The research combines time series analysis with a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to assess the impact of fiscal instruments on economic growth. Key findings highlight that fiscal multipliers in Bolivia align with broader developing economy estimates, and their magnitude depends on exchange rate regimes and capital mobility. The analysis underscores the importance of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies for minimizing the output costs of fiscal adjustments.

Key Findings

• Multiplier Estimates:

  • Spending multipliers range from 1/3 to 2/3, with public investment multipliers slightly higher than government consumption multipliers over longer horizons.
  • Tax multipliers are approximately half of the spending multipliers, making revenue-based consolidation less contractionary.
  • Under a fixed exchange rate (peg), multipliers are generally higher, but low capital mobility reverses this, favoring higher multipliers under a float.

• Exchange Rate Regimes:

  • Fiscal multipliers are elevated under a peg due to exchange rate adjustments offsetting some fiscal impacts, but this depends on capital mobility levels.
  • High capital mobility amplifies multipliers under a peg, while low mobility reduces the advantage, potentially making floats more effective in consolidations.

• Country Context:

  • Bolivia's status as a commodity exporter complicates tax multiplier estimation due to revenue volatility from commodity prices.
  • Multipliers are consistent with literature on emerging markets, showing moderate persistence and non-linear effects over time.

Methodology

• Empirical Approach: Utilizes the Blanchard-Perotti structural VAR framework to isolate fiscal shocks and estimate multipliers based on historical data from 1990-2022.
• DSGE Modeling: Employs a neo-Keynesian model calibrated to Bolivian conditions to simulate fiscal responses and validate empirical results, accounting for exchange rate regimes and capital mobility variations.

Policy Implications

• Fiscal consolidation should prioritize tax reforms and revenue enhancements due to low tax multipliers, despite political constraints.
• Spending reductions should target current expenditure more than public investment, as the latter is more growth-enhancing in the medium term.
• A transition to a floating exchange rate could mitigate consolidation costs if capital is mobile, but policymakers should coordinate fiscal and monetary settings to leverage exchange rate flexibility for economic stability.