IMF-重新审视爱沙尼亚的财政乘数_爱沙尼亚共和国（英）-2025.7_21页_1mb

The IMF Selected Issues Paper examines Estonia's fiscal multipliers to inform growth-friendly fiscal consolidation strategies. Key points:

• Economic Context: The pandemic increased permanent government spending, and demand for public services intensified, alongside climate/ageing and defense pressures. Estonia faced a prolonged recession, leading to tax reforms and spending cuts.

• Fiscal Multiplier Estimates: Multipliers are non-negligible:

  • General fiscal shock: 0.85–1.4
  • Aggregate spending: 0.6–1.2
  • Net revenues: -0.2

• Methodologies:

  • IMF Bucket Approach: Estimates a medium–high fiscal multiplier (0.85 in "normal" times, adjusted to 1.36 due to a large negative output gap).
  • Static Keynesian Model: Suggests static multipliers of 1.44 for personal income tax (PIT) and 0.96 for corporate income tax (CIT).
  • BP SVAR Approach: Confirms that spending multipliers are positive and larger in absolute terms than revenue multipliers. Granular analysis shows:
    • Spending: Wage/salary multipliers are the largest but fade quickly; public investment has a smaller but persistent effect.
    • Revenues: Direct taxes (especially PIT) have very large negative multipliers that build over time; VAT is non-persistent.

• Policy Implications:

  • Spending Cuts: Preferable for short-term output but highest impact through wage bills.
  • Revenue-Based Consolidation: Via direct taxes incurs persistent negative output costs but lower immediate impact.
  • Long-term Effects: Permanent spending increases reduce potential GDP growth slightly, while taxes permanently lower GDP, making tax-based consolidation costly in the long term.
  • Short-Term Focus: Spending cuts not tied to VAT, or increases in defense/climate spending may be the most growth-friendly.

• Conclusion: Significant short-term output costs for fiscal tightening, with nuances dependent on policy instrument persistence and type. Granderul estimates highlight that direct tax hikes have long-lasting negative effects, while subsidies and public investment may support growth.