2017年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_The_Composition_and_Drivers_of_Energy_Prices_and_Costs_in_Energy_212页_3mb

报告摘要

Summary of the CEPS Special Report No. 85: Composition and Drivers of Energy Prices and Costs in Energy Intensive Industries: The Case of Ceramics, Flat Glass and Chemical Industries

Core Content

This report, prepared by CEPS for the Directorate General for Enterprise and Industry, examines the composition and drivers of energy prices and costs in three energy-intensive industries: ceramics, flat glass, and chemicals (with a focus on ammonia and chlorine). The study is based on data collected from 78 questionnaires, of which 58 were used for analysis, covering 89 electricity-consuming plants and 69 natural gas-consuming plants. The analysis period spans from 2010 to 2012, and it includes both EU-wide and regional assessments, with particular attention to Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland.

The report highlights the following key aspects:

Energy price levels and structures: The study investigates the levels and components of energy bills (e.g., energy cost, grid fees, RES levies, taxes).
Energy intensity and efficiency: It assesses how much energy is consumed per unit of production and how this varies across industries and regions.
Impact on production costs: The effect of energy prices and their components on unit production costs, price-cost margin, EBIT, and EBITDA is evaluated.
Competitiveness analysis: The study compares energy costs within the EU and with non-EU production sites to assess the competitiveness of EU industries in the global market.
Energy policy and market trends: It provides an overview of current energy policy and market dynamics, including the role of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).

Main Viewpoints

1. Cross-Sectoral Analysis

The study was conducted across multiple sectors, including ceramics, flat glass, chemicals, steel, and aluminium.
Data were collected at the plant level, with a focus on electricity and natural gas prices, consumption, and cost components.
The analysis was structured to ensure anonymity and to avoid attributing data to specific plants.
For some sectors, such as ethylene, the data was insufficient to produce a detailed analysis.

2. Energy Price Trends and Structure

Electricity prices varied significantly across sectors and regions. The aluminium sector had the lowest prices, while the ceramics sector (specifically bricks) had the highest.
The energy component was the largest part of the electricity bill, followed by grid fees and RES levies.
Natural gas prices were generally lower than electricity prices, but the ammonia sector had the highest consumption levels.
Germany showed a notable decrease in electricity prices in 2012, primarily due to reductions in RES levies and grid fees, while Italy had the highest electricity prices among the selected countries.

3. Energy Intensity and Efficiency

Energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of output) was highest in the aluminium and steel sectors, with ammonia also showing high intensity.
Ceramics (especially wall and floor tiles) had relatively lower energy intensity compared to other sectors.
Energy efficiency varied across plants and regions, influenced by production technologies and consumption patterns.

4. Impact on Production Costs

Energy costs are a major component of production costs in energy-intensive industries.
The study found that energy price variations significantly affect unit production costs, price-cost margin, EBIT, and EBITDA.
In the chemical industry, particularly for ammonia, energy costs accounted for a large share of total production costs.

5. Regional and National Comparisons

The report provides a regional analysis of energy costs and structures, with a focus on Central Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Eastern Europe.
For Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland, the study was able to conduct country-specific analysis due to sufficient data availability.
In some cases, national trends were obscured by inter-country variations, such as a price increase in one country offsetting a decrease in another.

Key Information

Sample and Methodology

The sample was selected based on geographical distribution, plant capacity, production technology, and company size.
78 questionnaires were received, with 58 used for the main analysis.
65 questionnaires contained plausible data and were used for cross-sectional analysis.
Validation was conducted through plausibility checks, cross-sectoral comparisons, and third-party data sources.

Energy Bill Components

The energy component was the largest share of the electricity bill.
Grid fees and RES levies were also significant, with Germany showing a substantial reduction in RES levies in 2012.
In Spain, RES levies were zero due to a different approach to funding renewable energy support.

Indirect ETS Costs

Indirect ETS costs were calculated and included in the analysis.
These costs varied by region and had a measurable impact on production costs.

Industry-Specific Analysis

Ammonia production is heavily dependent on natural gas, with energy costs accounting for a large portion of total production costs.
Chlorine production, while not using natural gas, had similar energy cost structures to ammonia.
Ceramics (bricks and roof tiles, wall and floor tiles) showed lower energy intensity and higher grid fees in Italy and Spain.
Flat glass had high energy consumption and showed similar cost trends to ammonia and chlorine.

Challenges and Limitations

The ethylene sector was not included due to insufficient data.
Data validation was a major challenge, with some questionnaires excluded due to inconsistencies.
The EU ETS had a measurable but varying impact on production costs depending on the sector and region.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of energy prices and costs in determining the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries in the EU. It highlights the divergence in energy cost structures across sectors and regions, with Germany showing the most significant reductions in energy costs, and Italy and Spain facing higher electricity prices. The chemical industry, particularly ammonia production, is the most energy-dependent, with natural gas being the primary energy input. The study also suggests that a more integrated internal energy market could help reduce price differentials between member states, thereby improving industrial competitiveness.