世界银行-2019、2020年全球投资竞争力报告：在不确定时期重建投资者信心（英文）-2020.6-234页_5mb

Summary of the Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020

Core Content

The Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020 is a comprehensive analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI) trends, challenges, and opportunities in developing countries. The report highlights the importance of rebuilding investor confidence in times of economic uncertainty, particularly in the context of the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19), rising protectionism, and policy uncertainty. It emphasizes the role of investment promotion agencies (IPAs) and the legal and regulatory environment in shaping investment decisions and outcomes.

Main Messages

Overall Trends

1. Global FDI Decline: Even before the outbreak of COVID-19, FDI was declining due to trade policy uncertainty, protectionism, falling returns, and evolving international production models.
2. Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic introduced a new, unprecedented source of investor risk, leading to a significant drop in business confidence and a projected fall in global FDI by over 40% in 2020.
3. Investor Sensitivity: Over two-thirds of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in developing countries reported supply chain disruptions, revenue declines, and production cuts due to the crisis, with further deterioration expected.

Key Findings

Policy Uncertainty

• Policy uncertainty in trade and investment is a top investment decision factor, even more important than low taxes, low labor costs, or access to natural resources.
• Investors in China and Turkey have less ambitious investment plans compared to those in other countries.
• Intraregional investment links are strong in East Asia and Europe, while interregional investment is more prevalent elsewhere.

FDI and Economic Impact

• FDI has varied effects on poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality in countries like Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Turkey.
• Brownfield investments (acquisitions of existing firms) have increased as a share of total FDI in developing countries since 2010.
• Brownfield firms tend to perform better than domestic firms in the first five years of operation and contribute to faster employment and wage growth.
• FDI can improve women's economic opportunities and labor market outcomes, depending on the sector and context.

Regulatory Risk

• Regulatory risk is a critical factor influencing FDI flows.
• Predictability and transparency in regulatory frameworks are strongly associated with increased investor confidence.
• Higher regulatory risk correlates with higher expropriation risk insurance premiums and more restrictive FDI regulations.
• The report introduces a global regulatory risk database, which helps assess the impact of regulatory uncertainty on investment decisions.

Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs)

Role and Effectiveness

• The best-performing IPAs are dedicated promoters that provide targeted services and focus on specific sectors.
• Better-quality IPA services are linked to higher FDI inflows.
• IPA services are most relevant during the attraction stage of the investment life cycle, with effectiveness declining in later stages.
• Developing country investors place greater value on IPA services than their high-income counterparts.

Challenges and Strategies

• Financial and human resources are the top challenges for IPAs in developing countries.
• Subnational IPAs play an important role in attracting FDI and should be integrated into a national framework.
• Strategic focus and sector targeting are key to improving IPA performance.
• IPA mandates are expanding beyond FDI promotion, but this may not always lead to better outcomes.

Case Studies and Best Practices

• Costa Rica’s CINDE is highlighted for its strategic focus and effective sector targeting.
• IDA Ireland demonstrates the long-term success of a well-established IPA.
• Ireland and Rwanda show how different institutional setups respond to multiple mandates.
• Invest India is noted for building a high-performing IPA quickly.

Recommendations

• Governments should reaffirm commitments to market access and rules-based systems to reduce uncertainty.
• Transparent and predictable regulatory regimes are essential for building investor confidence.
• Improving labor market skills and linking local suppliers to MNEs can promote equitable growth.
• IPAs should focus on sector-specific targeting, improve service delivery, and expand their mandates strategically.

Structure and Methodology

• The report is based on a 2019 Global Investment Competitiveness Survey involving over 2,400 business executives from 10 large developing countries.
• It uses empirical data, regulatory risk analysis, and international best practices to assess FDI impacts and provide policy insights.
• Principal component analysis (PCA) and gravity models are used to evaluate FDI trends and regulatory risk.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for policy stability, transparent regulation, and strategic IPA support to rebuild investor confidence and enhance the development impact of FDI. It calls for timely action by governments to mitigate risks and leverage FDI for inclusive growth and economic transformation.