世界发展银行-Global-Investment-Competitiveness-Report-2019_2020-_-Rebuilding-Investor-Confidence-in-Times-of-Uncertainty_234页_5mb

报告摘要

2019/2020 Global Investment Competitiveness Report Summary

Core Content

The 2019/2020 Global Investment Competitiveness Report, titled "Rebuilding Investor Confidence in Times of Uncertainty", provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities facing foreign investors in developing countries. It highlights the impact of policy uncertainty, regulatory risk, and the evolving role of investment promotion agencies (IPAs) in fostering investor confidence and promoting inclusive growth.

Main Messages

1. Global Investment Trends

FDI Decline: Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, global foreign direct investment (FDI) was declining due to trade policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, falling returns on FDI, and changing international production models.
Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic has introduced a new, unprecedented source of investor risk, leading to historic lows in business confidence and a projected global FDI decline of over 40% in 2020.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Over two-thirds of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in developing countries reported supply chain disruptions, revenue declines, and production cuts due to the pandemic, with impacts expected to worsen in the coming months.

2. Policy Uncertainty and Investor Confidence

Policy Uncertainty: Trade and investment policy uncertainty is a key concern for foreign investors, with over half of those who consider it a "critically important" factor reporting a decrease in employment, productivity, or investment in the past year.
Investor Priorities: Foreign investors prioritize supportive political environments, stable macroeconomic conditions, and conducive regulatory regimes over low taxes, low labor costs, or access to natural resources.
FDI's Role in Development: FDI in developing countries has been shown to bring benefits to firms and citizens, including more and better-paid jobs, technology transfers, and stronger linkages to global value chains (GVCs).

3. Regulatory Risk and FDI

Regulatory Risk Measure: The report introduces a new global database of regulatory risk, showing that predictability and transparency increase investor confidence and FDI flows.
Regulatory Risk Factors: Regulatory risk is associated with higher expropriation risk insurance premiums, more restrictive FDI regulations, and lower FDI inflows.
Regulatory Pillars: Regulatory risk is assessed through three pillars: transparency, protection, and recourse. Expropriation and breach of contract are the most likely to adversely affect investments.

4. Investment Promotion Agencies (IPAs)

IPA Role: IPAs play a crucial role in attracting FDI and enhancing investment competitiveness.
IPA Services: Better-quality IPA services are linked to higher FDI inflows and are more important in the attraction stage of the investment life cycle.
IPA Challenges: IPAs in developing countries face challenges such as limited financial and human resources and complex economic environments.
IPA Best Practices: Some IPAs, such as CINDE (Costa Rica) and IDA Ireland, have successfully implemented strategic focus, proactive approaches, and sector targeting to improve performance.

Key Findings

FDI and Economic Impact

Sectoral Effects: FDI has varied effects on labor markets, poverty, shared prosperity, and inequality, depending on the sector and worker skill levels.
Brownfield vs. Greenfield: Brownfield FDI (acquisitions of existing firms) is more common in developed economies and sectors reliant on land or established distribution networks. It also performs better than domestic firms and creates faster employment and wage growth.
FDI in Developing Countries: FDI inflows in Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Turkey have increased significantly, but the distributional effects vary by country.

Investment Climate and Policy

Policy Restrictiveness: Investment policies in developing countries are becoming more restrictive, increasing policy uncertainty.
Investor Decision Factors: The legal and regulatory environment is among the top three investment decision factors, with transparency and predictability being key to building investor confidence.
IPA Mandates: IPAs in developing countries have broader mandates than just FDI promotion, but more mandates do not always correlate with higher FDI inflows.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of transparent and predictable regulatory regimes, supportive political environments, and effective investment promotion agencies in rebuilding investor confidence and enhancing economic competitiveness. It also highlights the need for governments to remain vigilant about the potential for worsening income inequality and to implement policies that promote inclusive growth.

Key Recommendations

Reduce Policy Uncertainty: Governments should reaffirm commitments to market access and rules-based systems to reduce uncertainty.
Improve Regulatory Regimes: Enhancing regulatory transparency, protection, and recourse can increase FDI inflows and promote investor confidence.
Strengthen IPAs: IPAs should focus on sector targeting, strategic focus, and proactive engagement to maximize FDI's development impact.
Enhance Labor Market Outcomes: Improving labor market skills and linkages with local suppliers can promote more equitable economic growth.

Appendices and Data

The report includes figures and tables showing FDI trends, regulatory risk scores, and IPA performance indicators.
Surveys and empirical analyses from over 2,400 business executives in 10 middle-income countries provide insights into investor behavior and policy impacts.
Case studies from Ethiopia, Vietnam, Turkey, Ireland, and Rwanda illustrate the effects of FDI and the role of IPAs in promoting investment competitiveness.

Contributors and Authors

Sarah Hebous, Armando Heilbron, Priyanka Kher, Hania Kronfol, Ryan Kuo, Peter Kusek, and Christine Zhenwei Qiang are among the key authors and contributors to the report.
The report is supported by technical reviewers and donor partners, including the Prosperity Fund of the UK and the Government of Austria.

Rights and Permissions

The report is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
Translations and adaptations must include disclaimers to clarify that they are not official World Bank translations.
Third-party content is used with acknowledgment, and permissions must be obtained for re-use.

Summary

The Global Investment Competitiveness Report 2019/2020 provides insights into the investment climate, regulatory risk, and the role of IPAs in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). It emphasizes the importance of policy stability, transparent regulatory frameworks, and effective investment promotion strategies in rebuilding investor confidence and fostering inclusive economic growth. The report is a valuable resource for governments, investors, and policy makers seeking to enhance investment competitiveness and respond to global economic uncertainty.