2025-11-13-莱坊-Retail_Monitor_Q3_2025_2页_1mb

报告摘要

UK Retail Monitor - Q3 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank Retail Monitor provides a quarterly analysis of the UK retail sector, covering key performance metrics, market sentiment, and investment trends. The report highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the retail market due to the upcoming Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025, which is expected to have a more significant impact on consumers than on corporate entities.

Main Points

Consumer Markets

Consumer Confidence remains stable, with the GfK index slightly increasing to -17 in October, indicating improved sentiment regarding personal situations and economic prospects.
Retail Sales (excluding fuel) are robust, with a +3.2% year-on-year growth in Q3, outperforming the wider UK economy, which is projected to grow by only +0.2%.
Retail Sales Volumes also show positive growth, up +1.5% year-on-year, and +0.9% quarter-on-quarter.
Food Sales were weaker in Q3, with +1.6% value growth but -1.7% volume decline.
Average Weekly Earnings have shown steady growth over the past four years, suggesting a stable purchasing power for consumers.

Occupier Markets

Retail vacancy rates dropped below 15% in Q3 for the first time since 2020, indicating a stabilization in the market.
Vacancy rates improved across all retail channels, with retail warehouses having the lowest rate at 6.1% and shopping centres showing the most positive trend.
Retail rents continue to rise slowly, with an annualised increase of +2.6% as of September 2025.
Bodycare and Claire's faced significant challenges in Q3, entering administration but subsequently being acquired and restructured.
Amazon Fresh closures highlight the difficulties of transitioning to a multichannel retail model.

Investment Markets

Retail investment volumes were £1.17bn in Q3 2025, a -4.1% decrease from Q2 and a -36% drop compared to Q3 2024.
Total YTD investment volumes for 2025 are £3.75bn, below the £4bn recorded in the same period in 2024.
The lack of large shopping centre deals in Q3 contributed to the decline in investment volumes.
Key bellwether transactions are expected to complete in Q4 2025 or early 2026, including Lexicon Bracknell, Braehead, Silverburn, and Merry Hill.
Investment trends by sub-sector show varying levels of activity, with HS-Prime and SC-Regionally Dominant seeing the most growth.

Key Information

The Autumn Budget is a major concern for the retail sector, with fears of more punitive tax measures affecting consumer demand.
Despite these concerns, retail sales and consumer confidence have not shown significant decline in the data.
Occupier distress is more pronounced in high street retail, with notable closures and restructures.
Vacancy rates have seen a positive trend, especially in shopping centres and retail warehouses.
Retail rents are on an upward trajectory, reflecting market confidence.
Investment volumes remain low due to economic uncertainty, but some major deals are anticipated in the coming months.

Conclusion

The UK retail market is navigating a period of uncertainty and stabilization. While the Autumn Budget looms large as a potential disruptor, the data suggests that consumer confidence and retail sales are still relatively resilient. Occupier markets are showing signs of recovery, with lower vacancy rates and rising rents, while investment activity remains muted but is expected to pick up in the near future with the completion of key deals.