2025-02-10-莱坊-Retail_Monitor_Q4_2024_2页_1mb

报告摘要

UK Retail Monitor - Q4 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank Retail Monitor for Q4 2024 presents a mixed picture of the UK retail market, highlighting both challenges and resilience. The report emphasizes that while the Autumn Budget introduced concerns, it did not lead to a retail crisis. Instead, the market showed signs of recovery and adaptation.

Key Headlines

Mixed Quarter: The retail market experienced a mix of weakness and resilience. Weakness was observed in consumer sentiment, volatile retail sales, and the prospect of rising operational costs. However, there was resilience in the form of rising disposable income, strong Christmas trading, improving vacancy rates, rental growth, and increased investment activity.
Optimism Fading: The initial optimism for 2025 has somewhat diminished, leaving the market with a sense of contradictions.
Challenges Ahead: The next 12 months are expected to bring challenges, but the market has historically shown the ability to withstand economic downturns.

Consumer Markets

Disposable Income Growth: Household disposable income increased for the sixth consecutive quarter, driven by wage growth (+5.6%) outpacing inflation (CPI 2.5%).
Retail Sales Fluctuations: Retail sales were erratic, with:
- October: +1.0%
- November: -0.5%
- December: +3.5%
Non-Food Sales: Non-Food sales values grew by +3.5%, with volume growth at +4.3%, indicating the use of discounts to stimulate demand.
Christmas Performance: December saw a strong increase in spending (+3.5% y-o-y) and items purchased (+2.9% y-o-y). Non-Food categories like Cosmetics, Music & DVDs, and Books experienced double-digit growth.

Occupier Markets

Cost Pressures: Retailers faced new cost pressures from the Labour government's Autumn Budget, including the lowered NI threshold, which was unexpected.
Post-Pandemic Stability: Operators are in a stronger position post-pandemic, having removed weaker parts of their business.
Festive Sales: Major anchors reported strong Christmas sales, such as Next's +6.0% sales, surpassing expectations.
Real Estate Performance: Improved occupational stability led to better real estate performance, with vacancy rates dropping to 13.8% and rental values growing above +1% for the first time since 2016.

Investment Markets

Strong Investment Activity: Investment volumes reached £2.9bn, the highest in several years and the strongest quarter of 2024.
Sector Breakdown:
- Retail Warehousing: Accounted for 58% of total deal volume, with prime yields compressing by -25bps and -50bps in Open A1 and Bulky Goods Parks, respectively.
- Shopping Centres: Contributed 33% of total deal volume, with major prime deals lifting the average lot size to £74m. Landsec's £490m acquisition of Liverpool ONE set a new benchmark and caused a -25bps compression in prime yields.
Yield Compression: Yield compression is now firmly underway in both Retail Warehousing and Shopping Centres.
Quarterly Performance: Retail Warehousing's Q4 total of £1.7bn marked its strongest quarterly performance in recent years.

Visual Insights

Retail Vacancy Rate: A 12-year trend showing the evolution of vacancy rates.
Rental Growth: A 10-year rolling 12-month growth chart, highlighting trends across sectors.
Retail Rental Growth by Sector: A breakdown of rental growth across different retail subsectors.
Shopping Centre Transactions: Visual representation of transaction activity in shopping centres.
Investment Volumes by Sub-Sector: A chart showing investment volumes across retail subsectors over the last six quarters.
Yields: A visual of yield trends across different retail sectors.

Contact Information

For more information or to sign up for quarterly dashboards and weekly Retail Notes, visit knightfrank.com/research.

Key Contacts

Stephen Springham
Partner, Head of Retail Research
+44 20 7861 1236
stephen.springham@knightfrank.com
Emma Barnstable
Associate, Commercial Research
+44 20 8106 1385
emma.barnstable@knightfrank.com
Charlie Barke
Partner, Head of Retail Capital Markets
+44 20 7861 1233
charlie.barke@knightfrank.com
Jonathan Eastwood
Partner, Head of Retail Agency
+44 20 86827769
jonathan.eastwood@knightfrank.com