2024-02-23-莱坊-Central_London_Retail_Market_Dashboard_Q4_23_2页_973kb

Central London Retail Dashboard Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content

The Central London Retail Dashboard for Q4 2023 provides a comprehensive overview of the retail and leisure market in London, highlighting key trends in vacancy rates, lettings activity, rental growth, and investment volumes. It also includes market sentiment and forecasts for the coming year.

Main Points

Vacancy Rates

• Unit vacancy rates improved or remained stable across most sub-markets.
• City was the exception, with a sharp increase of +146bps to 24.9%.
• Overall, vacancy rates dropped to 10.6%, the lowest since Q4 2020.

Lettings Activity

• Lettings volume reached 228,233 sq ft across 69 deals.
• Oxford Street had the highest activity with 60,400+ sq ft.
• Covent Garden and Knightsbridge also saw significant activity.
• Notable new tenants include Krispy Kreme, Dr. Martens, HMV, Miniso, Bimba Y Lola, Paul & Shark, Hoff, and Alo Yoga.

Rental Growth

• Rental growth accelerated across central sub-markets:
  • City & Midtown: +0.8%
  • West End: +0.9%
• Rest of London saw flat rental growth at 0.0%.

Investment Activity

• Investment deals in Q4 totaled £18.7 million.
• Annual investment volumes for 2023 reached £979.7 million, surpassing the 5-year average and 2022 levels.
• Private capital dominated the market, accounting for 74% of purchases in 2023, up from 4.4% in 2022.
• Key investment deals included:
  • The Barts Square Collection, 43 Little Britain: £7.0 million
  • 3-5 Wardour St: £9.85 million
  • 18 Great Suffolk St: £1.8 million

Market Sentiment & Forecasts

• Encouraging signs in letting activity, though the market remains stop-start.
• West End is expected to surpass 2019 pre-COVID levels in spending in the coming months.
• Tax-free shopping is seen as a potential catalyst to accelerate this growth.
• Annual footfall in the West End increased by +5% YoY, and annual spend rose by +12% YoY to £9 billion, just -1% below 2019.
• Forecasts suggest £9.4 billion in sales for 2024.

Key Investment Deals Table

Key Lettings Table

Additional Insights

• Consumer spending remained resilient despite six storms deterring visitors.
• International visits showed strength, supported by hotel occupancy growth (Nov +10.3% / Dec +9.8%).
• Footfall trends for Q4 2023:
  • October: -5.2%
  • November: +0.3%
  • December: +4.6%

Research & Contact

• Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy, and forecasting to developers, investors, and public sector clients.
• The report is for general information only and not to be relied upon.
• Contact details for key professionals:
  • Jonathan Eastwood – Head of Retail Agency, National Retail
  • Josh Braid – Partner, Central London & International Agency
  • Stephen Springham – Partner, Head of Retail Research
  • Ollie Green – Partner, Central London Retail & International Agency
  • Rob Hargreaves – Partner, Central London & International Agency
  • Emma Barnstable – Associate, Commercial Research
  • Ryan Mak – Surveyor, Retail & Leisure Agency
  • Andrew Thatcher – Partner, Central London Lease Advisory

Call to Action

• Sign up for quarterly dashboards and weekly Retail Note to stay updated on retail market trends.

All data sourced from EGI, RCA, PMA, and Knight Frank.