2024-12-05-莱坊-Retail_Monitor_Q3_2024_2页_1mb

报告摘要

UK Retail Monitor - Q3 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Knight Frank Retail Monitor provides a quarterly analysis of the UK retail sector, covering key data across all subsectors and current market sentiment. The report highlights a mixed picture of the retail market, with positive trends in property markets and occupier dynamics, but challenges in consumer spending and policy impacts.

Key Headlines

Retail Property Markets: Showing strong promise with occupational health at its best in years and rental growth projected across all sectors.
Shopping Centres: Experiencing a significant comeback, with positive growth for the first time since 2017.
Investor Interest: Rising, with investment volumes increasing over the previous quarter.
Consumer Spending: Primarily driven by retailer discounts, indicating a fragile consumer market.
Retail Sales: Strong on a value basis (+2.8%) after a weak Q2, but deflationary pressures emerged in August, particularly in out-of-town categories.
Consumer Confidence: Dipped into negative territory (-3pts) in September, reflecting concerns over Labour's October Budget.
Occupier Dynamics: Retailers are showing quiet optimism, with several announcing new store openings or expansions.
Retail Rents: Forecasted to grow by +1.3% in 2024, with subsector expectations universally positive.

Consumer Markets

Inflation Pressures: Receded, with spending power growing.
Retail Sales:
- Value: +2.8% (after Q2's +0.1%).
- Volume: +2.6%, returning to positive territory for the first time since 2022.
Deflation: Concentrated in out-of-town categories, such as Electricals (-16.2% implied inflation), while Clothing and Cosmetics saw healthy inflation and growth.
Consumer Confidence:
- Personal Financial Situation: Dipped to negative territory.
- Confidence Over Next 12 Months: Rose slightly, indicating cautious optimism.

Occupier Markets

Market Position: Retail is in one of its strongest positions in recent years.
Distress Levels: Fourth-lowest year of occupier distress on record, with only a few high-profile failures (e.g., Carpetright, Ted Baker).
Store Closures: 760 stores affected YTD, well below the annual average of 2,462 (2019-2023).
Vacancy Rates: Remained steady over the past 14 months.
Store Openings vs. Closures: Nearly balanced for a third consecutive year.
Retailer Commitment to Physical Stores:
- M&S: Announced new stores in Bristol & Bath.
- Sosander: Opened its first physical stores in Marlow & Chelmsford.
- Mountain Warehouse: Plans to expand by 50 sites.
Retail Rents: Forecasted to grow by +1.3% in 2024, with subsector growth expectations:
- Retail Warehousing: +1.9%
- High Street: +1.6%
- Shopping Centres: +1.2%

Investment Markets

Deal Volumes: £1.6bn in Q3, the strongest quarter of 2024 so far.
Subsector Breakdown:
- Shopping Centres: 36% of deal volumes.
- Retail Warehousing: 32%.
- Foodstores: 26%.
- High Street: Only 6% of deals.
Investor Sentiment: Continues to warm toward retail, with annual total returns forecast at 8.2%, outperforming Industrial (7.4%) and All Property (5.1%).
Retail Warehousing Performance: Annual total returns forecast at 12.4%, a significant increase from 2.1% in 2023.
Yields: Compressed by -25bps to 5.50% due to increased supply and competition for assets.

Visuals Summary

Retail Vacancy Rate: Steady over the last 12 years.
Rental / Capital Value Growth: Rolling 12-month growth data for the last 10 years.
Retail Rental Growth by Sector: Highlighting growth in Shopping Centres, Retail Warehousing, and High Street.
Investment Volumes by Sub-sector: Showing the distribution of deals across different retail subsectors.
Yields: Illustrating the compression in yields over the last six quarters.

Contact Information

Stephen Springham
Partner, Head of Retail Research
+44 20 7861 1236
stephen.springham@knightfrank.com
Emma Barnstable
Associate, Commercial Research
+44 20 8106 1385
emma.barnstable@knightfrank.com
Charlie Barke
Partner, Head of Retail Capital Markets
+44 20 7861 1233
charlie.barke@knightfrank.com
Jonathan Eastwood
Partner, Head of Retail Agency
+44 20 86827769
jonathan.eastwood@knightfrank.com