2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Expenditure_Rules_Effective_Tools_for_Sound_Fiscal_Policy__29页_640kb

Summary of "Expenditure Rules: Effective Tools for Sound Fiscal Policy?"

Core Content

This working paper examines the effectiveness of expenditure rules as tools for promoting sound fiscal policy. It uses a comprehensive dataset covering all countries with national and supranational fiscal rules, including 33 expenditure rules, from 1985 to 2013. The paper contributes to the existing literature by analyzing compliance with expenditure rules and their implications for public spending and long-term fiscal sustainability.

Main Points

• Expenditure Rules Defined: Expenditure rules include specific numerical targets set in legislation and expenditure ceilings that can be revised only on a low-frequency basis, such as during electoral cycles, provided they are binding for at least three years.

• Compliance and Design Features:

  • Expenditure rules are generally more effective in terms of compliance compared to other fiscal rules (e.g., budget balance or debt rules).
  • Compliance is higher when the expenditure target is directly under government control and when the rule is legally binding or included in a coalition agreement.
  • Compliance is also influenced by the legal basis of the rule, with statutory rules and coalition agreements showing better compliance than political commitments.

• Effectiveness of Expenditure Rules:

  • Expenditure rules are associated with better fiscal performance, including higher primary balances and lower primary spending.
  • These rules help in achieving counter-cyclical fiscal policy by allowing for spending buffers during good times and reducing volatility.
  • They are linked to increased efficiency in public investment, although this finding needs to be interpreted cautiously due to the limited sample size.

• Impact on Spending Composition:

  • Expenditure rules may reduce public investment in some cases, particularly in emerging economies.
  • However, this negative effect is less pronounced in advanced economies, where well-designed budgetary frameworks can mitigate such impacts.
  • There are mixed results on whether expenditure rules lead to more efficient spending, with some evidence suggesting that they improve efficiency, especially in the context of medium-term frameworks.

• Adoption and Abandonment:

  • Expenditure rules are often adopted during periods of economic downturn or financial crisis.
  • Some countries abandon these rules due to non-compliance, while others do so due to successful fiscal consolidation.
  • The adoption of expenditure rules is often linked to the need to meet supranational fiscal targets, such as the Maastricht debt and deficit limits.
  • Political and institutional factors play a key role in the adoption and maintenance of expenditure rules, especially in coalition governments.

Key Findings

• Compliance: Countries with expenditure rules tend to comply more frequently than with other fiscal rules. Compliance rates are around 68-72% in bad and good economic times, respectively.

• Long-term Sustainability: Expenditure rules are associated with improved fiscal sustainability, reflected in higher primary balances and lower primary spending. The effect is more pronounced when the rules are legally binding and cover the general government.

• Public Investment: The impact of expenditure rules on public investment is mixed. In emerging economies, there is a negative association, but in advanced economies, this effect is less evident due to better institutional frameworks.

• Design and Legal Basis: Specific expenditure ceilings (e.g., nominal targets) perform better in terms of compliance than GDP or real growth-based rules. The legal basis of the rule (statutory, coalition agreement, or political commitment) significantly affects compliance rates.

Tables and Figures

• Table 1: Lists items frequently excluded from expenditure rules, such as interest payments, cyclically-sensitive expenditure, capital expenditure, and security-related spending.

• Table 2: Shows the relationship between expenditure rules and fiscal performance. Countries with expenditure rules have higher primary balances and lower primary spending, even after controlling for other factors.

• Figures:

  • Figure 1: Types of expenditure rules in 2013.
  • Figure 2: Combination of expenditure rules with other national rules.
  • Figure 3: Legal basis of fiscal rules.
  • Figure 4: Design features of expenditure rules.
  • Figure 5: Timeline of expenditure rule adoption.
  • Figure 6: Compliance rates with fiscal rules over time.
  • Figure 7: Compliance and type of rule.
  • Figure 8: Compliance and legal basis.

Conclusion

Expenditure rules are effective tools for promoting fiscal discipline and counter-cyclical policy. They are more frequently complied with than other types of fiscal rules and are associated with improved fiscal performance. However, their impact on public investment is mixed, with adverse effects more likely in emerging economies. The design and legal basis of the rules are crucial factors in their effectiveness and compliance. The paper highlights the importance of combining expenditure rules with other fiscal instruments to achieve comprehensive fiscal governance.