2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_Rules_in_Response_to_the_Crisis_Toward_the_quotNext_49页_923kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis—Toward the 'Next-Generation' Rules. A New Dataset"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper explores the evolution of fiscal rules globally in response to the financial crisis, emphasizing the shift toward "next-generation" fiscal rules that aim to balance fiscal sustainability with flexibility in the face of economic shocks. The paper presents a comprehensive dataset covering fiscal rules in 81 countries from 1985 to end-March 2012, and introduces fiscal rules indices to evaluate and compare the design and enforcement of these rules across countries.

Main Findings

Adoption and Strengthening of Fiscal Rules
- Many new fiscal rules have been adopted, and existing ones have been strengthened in response to the crisis.
- These rules are designed to provide a medium-term anchor for fiscal policy, support credible long-term adjustment efforts, and ensure fiscal sustainability.
- The "next-generation" rules are more complex than earlier versions, combining sustainability and flexibility objectives.
Global Spread of Fiscal Rules
- In 1990, only five countries had fiscal rules covering at least the central government. By end-March 2012, this number had increased to 76 countries.
- National fiscal rules are more prevalent than supranational ones, with advanced economies leading the adoption.
- Emerging economies have caught up with advanced economies in terms of the number and comprehensiveness of fiscal rules.
- Only a few low-income countries have adopted fiscal rules.
Fiscal Rules Dataset and Indices
- The dataset includes both national and supranational fiscal rules and is structured to reflect the design elements of the rules.
- Fiscal rules indices are constructed to summarize the key features of the rules, including enforcement mechanisms, legal basis, and coverage.
- These indices are not based on actual compliance but on the formal institutional setup of the rules.
Key Characteristics of Fiscal Rules
- Legislative Support: Many rules are supported by legislation, with some having constitutional backing.
- Coverage of Government: Most rules cover at least the central government, though some extend to subnational levels.
- Coverage of Aggregate: Rules often target public debt, budget balance, or expenditure, with a focus on sustainability and economic stability.
- Escape Clauses: Some rules include provisions for temporary deviations in response to shocks.
- Automatic Correction Mechanisms: These mechanisms are crucial for ensuring compliance and are often embedded in the rules.
- Supporting Arrangements: Independent fiscal councils and fiscal responsibility laws are common supporting features.

Types of Fiscal Rules

There are four main types of fiscal rules, each with distinct objectives, pros, and cons:

Type of Rule	Pros	Cons
Debt Rule	Direct link to debt sustainability, easy to communicate and monitor	No clear short-term guidance, can be pro-cyclical, may be met via temporary measures
Budget Balance Rule	Clear operational guidance, close link to debt sustainability	No economic stabilization feature, can be pro-cyclical, headline balance may be affected by external factors
Structural Budget Balance Rule	Relatively clear operational guidance, economic stabilization function, allows for one-off factors	Complex to communicate and monitor, correction for cycle is difficult in countries with structural changes
Expenditure Rule	Clear operational guidance, allows for economic stabilization, steers government size	Not directly linked to debt sustainability, may lead to unwanted spending distribution changes
Revenue Rule	Steers government size, improves revenue policy and administration	Not directly linked to debt sustainability, can be pro-cyclical

Next-Generation Fiscal Rules

These rules are more sophisticated and aim to address the trade-off between sustainability and flexibility.
They are often complemented by independent fiscal councils and other institutional arrangements.
The complexity of these rules poses challenges for implementation, communication, and monitoring.
The effectiveness of next-generation rules depends on country-specific institutional capacity.

Key Examples and Context

EU: The "Fiscal Compact" and the "Six Pack" reform introduced new debt reduction rules and expenditure growth benchmarks, with enforcement mechanisms such as automatic correction and judicial oversight.
ECCU: Members aim to reduce public debt-to-GDP ratios to 60 percent by 2020.
WAEMU: Requires a balanced budget and a public debt-to-GDP ratio no higher than 70 percent.
CEMAC: Introduced a structural balance rule based on a three-year moving average of oil revenue, and a rule for non-oil basic fiscal balance.

Conclusion

Fiscal rules have become a central tool for managing public finances and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability.
The dataset and indices provide a valuable resource for analyzing and comparing fiscal rules across countries.
The effectiveness of these rules depends on their design, legal basis, and the presence of supporting institutions.
Future work should focus on the relationship between fiscal rules and fiscal performance, as well as the practical implementation of these rules.

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