20170223-法国巴黎银行-South_African_budget_review__Bridging_the_gap__13页_655kb

报告摘要

South African Budget Review Summary: Bridging the Gap?

Core Content

The 2017 South African national budget was largely in line with previous expectations, with few surprises and minimal changes to macroeconomic forecasts. The focus was on fiscal consolidation and structural economic reforms, though concerns remain about the pace and effectiveness of these efforts.

Main Budget Deficit and Fiscal Consolidation

The main budget deficit is projected to narrow from 3.9% of GDP in FY2016/17 to 3.3% in FY2019/20, representing a modest deterioration in the deficit consolidation profile.
The Treasury managed to stabilise the debt-to-GDP ratio, with gross debt peaking at 52.9% of GDP in FY2018/19, still below the 15% benchmark set by the Treasury.
The primary budget surplus is now expected to be achieved in FY2018/19, one year later than previously anticipated, indicating a lack of progress in fiscal reforms.

Tax Policy Changes

No VAT increase was announced, which was expected due to political sensitivities.
A new top-tier tax rate of 45% was introduced for individuals earning ZAR 1.5 million or more.
Dividend tax was increased by 5 percentage points to 20%.
Sin taxes (e.g., on tobacco and alcohol) and a ZAR 0.39 per litre fuel levy were also raised.
The Treasury highlighted that these changes were aimed at plugging the revenue gap, but the revenue assumptions remain optimistic, particularly due to high inflation expectations.

Expenditure Management

The Treasury adhered to fiscal expenditure ceilings, helping to contain the deficit.
ZAR 30bn in spending was reprioritised, mainly towards higher education and social welfare.
Debt-service costs remain the fastest-growing component of government spending, rising at 10.5% annually.
The public-sector wage bill and non-core spending were targeted for reduction.

Infrastructure and Public-Private Partnerships

The government plans to invest ZAR 950bn in infrastructure over the next three financial years, with state-owned entities (SOEs) accounting for 46.7% of total expenditure.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) are expected to grow to ZAR 65bn, with energy becoming a more significant area of investment.
Eskom, the state-owned power utility, is a major risk to public finances, due to its ZAR 350bn guarantee facility, which will be extended until 2023.

Debt Service and Risk Factors

Debt-service costs are expected to rise, increasing the debt burden over the medium term.
The country's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain above 50%, with contingent liabilities (e.g., guarantees to SOEs) adding to the risk.
Rating agencies are likely to view the budget in a neutral light, but are concerned about the lack of structural reforms and political instability.

Political Risks

Politics remains the largest risk to South Africa's investment-grade credit rating.
A cabinet reshuffle could delay fiscal progress, especially if it involves replacing the deputy minister with someone more aligned with President Zuma.
The Economic Freedom Fighters' support for Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was a symbolic gesture in a highly polarised political environment.

Structural Growth Reforms

There has been no meaningful progress on structural growth reforms, which are seen as essential for boosting potential growth.
The current potential growth rate is estimated at 1.4%, and the Treasury's macroeconomic assumptions for growth and inflation are higher than expected, potentially inflating revenue forecasts.
The rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) are cautious, with S&P warning that more needs to be done to avoid a downgrade.

Key Concerns

The revenue assumptions are too optimistic, with the Treasury projecting 9.0% annual revenue growth against 8% nominal GDP growth.
SOEs continue to underperform, with poor returns on equity and inefficiencies in governance and procurement.
Eskom's nuclear programme was not mentioned, despite being a major financial risk, and the Treasury's guarantee facility does not cover it, creating a potential black swan event.

Rating Agency Outlook

Moody's and Fitch are scheduled to review South Africa's credit rating in mid-2017, with negative outlooks.
S&P is expected to update its rating on 7 April, and while the budget may avoid a downgrade, political risk remains a wildcard.
The Treasury's fiscal discipline is not enough to offset the lack of growth-enhancing reforms.

Conclusion

The 2017 budget was a left-of-centre compromise within the ANC, focusing on fiscal restraint and tax reforms, but lacking substantive structural changes. While the deficit and debt ratios are stable, the long-term sustainability of South Africa's fiscal position is questionable, and political instability continues to pose a significant risk to its credit rating.