20160729-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb
报告摘要
Investment Daily Note Summary
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and Chinese equity markets, including indices, stock performance, sector trends, valuations, and external market conditions. It highlights key events, financial data, and investment recommendations for the day.
Main Market Indices
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,174, down 0.2% with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 1.2%.
- HSCEI: Closed at 9,083, down 0.4% with a YTD loss of 6.0%.
- Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,994, up 0.1% with a YTD loss of 15.4%.
- Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,951, down 0.2% with a YTD loss of 15.5%.
- U.S. Market: Mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 15 points, S&P 500 up 3 points, and NASDAQ up 15 points.
Market Trends and Performance
- The HSI and HSCEI both showed a mixed trend, with the HSI closing slightly lower after a volatile session.
- The Hong Kong property sector saw gains due to the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
- FDG Electric Vehicles (729.HK) is highlighted as a buy-the-dip pick, with a target price of HK$0.485 and a stop-loss at HK$0.380.
- The stock has a market cap of HK$9.55bn and a 3M average daily volume of 38.78mn shares.
Key Market Events
- CNOOC (883.HK) issued a profit warning, anticipating an 8 billion RMB net loss for the first half of 2016, potentially affecting oil-related stocks.
- Wynn Macau (1128.HK) reported a 3.6% YoY increase in net revenues and 9.8% in adjusted property EBITDA for 2Q, but the stock is overbought and may correct.
- Want Want China (151.HK) is expected to report disappointing H1 sales due to increased competition and decreased demand, leading to a 4.3% drop in stock price.
Top Picks for the Day
-
Belle Int'l (1880.HK)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$5.32
- Target Price: HK$5.78
- Stop-loss Price: HK$5.00
- Reason: Stock price gapped higher, may test 250-day MA.
-
Xinyi HK (8328.HK)
- Last Trading Day Closing: HK$1.38
- Target Price: HK$1.49
- Stop-loss Price: HK$1.31
- Reason: Share price rallied strongly with increasing turnover, suggesting a small bet opportunity.
Sector Performance
The following sectors showed positive performance on the previous day:
- IPP: 3.4% (5D: 3.5%, 1M: 5.3%)
- Airline: 2.2% (5D: 2.3%, 1M: 15.2%)
- Other Metals: 2.2% (5D: -0.1%, 1M: 8.4%)
- Automobile: 2.1% (5D: 3.7%, 1M: 21.1%)
- Heavy Machinery: 1.9% (5D: 0.8%, 1M: -1.1%)
- Local Property: 1.3% (5D: 1.1%, 1M: 13.5%)
- Agriculture: 1.2% (5D: 2.3%, 1M: 3.2%)
- Toll Road: 0.9% (5D: 1.3%, 1M: 5.5%)
- HK Consumer Group: 0.8% (5D: 4.0%, 1M: 10.0%)
- Handset and related accessories: 0.7% (5D: 1.2%, 1M: 6.6%)
- Chinese Property: 0.7% (5D: -1.0%, 1M: 9.2%)
- Sports accessories: 0.7% (5D: 0.0%, 1M: 6.9%)
- Dairy: 0.5% (5D: 0.2%, 1M: 0.3%)
- Gas: 0.4% (5D: -1.1%, 1M: 1.9%)
- REITs: 0.4% (5D: 0.9%, 1M: 6.8%)
Valuations and Forward P/E
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): FY16E P/E at 12.3, long-term average at 11.0, with a deviation of 12.5%.
- HSCEI: FY16E P/E at 7.8, long-term average at 7.9, with a deviation of -1.0%.
- Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E at 13.8, long-term average at 10.7, with a deviation of 28.8%.
- S&P 500: FY16E P/E at 18.4, long-term average at 15.3, with a deviation of 20.5%.
External Market Conditions
- Oil prices fell to a three-month low, with New York crude oil futures at US $41.14/bbl, down US$0.78.
- Gold prices rose slightly to US$1,341.20/oz, up US$6.70.
- U.S. interest rates remained unchanged, affecting ADRs and indirectly influencing HSI.
- ADR prices effectively put HSI down 205 points, closing at 21,968.
Most Traded ETFs
- Top 20 most traded ETFs are listed in the document, but no specific details are provided.
Economic Data and Event Calendar
- The document includes a result calendar for various companies, indicating the release of financial results and dividends.
- Key dates include 2/8/2016 for Hutchtel HK, Hysan Dev, and others, up to 30/08/2016 for Nanjing Panda.
Most Short Sold Stocks
- Several stocks are highlighted as being heavily shorted, including:
A-Share Premium to H-Share
- The table shows the A-share premium to H-share for various companies, including:
Summary of Key Points
- The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI closed with a small decline, showing mixed performance.
- Oil prices dropped, and CNOOC warned of a significant loss, which may affect oil-related stocks.
- The property sector showed strength, particularly in Hong Kong and China.
- FDG Electric Vehicles (729.HK) is recommended as a buy-the-dip stock with a target price of HK$0.485.
- Belle Int'l (1880.HK) and Xinyi HK (8328.HK) are top picks for the day due to recent price movements and technical analysis.
- The A-share premium to H-share is significant for several blue-chip companies, indicating potential value for investors.
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