2022-12-14-世界银行-世界银行_国际债务报告_英_204页_5mb

International Debt Report 2022 Summary

Core Content

The International Debt Report 2022 provides an updated analysis of external debt trends and statistics for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2010 to 2021. It highlights the evolving composition of debt, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the role of multilateral and bilateral creditors in shaping the debt landscape.

Main Points and Key Information

1. External Debt Trends (2010-21)

• Total External Debt: Rose by 5.6% in nominal terms to US$9 trillion by the end of 2021.
• Debt-to-GNI Ratio: Declined by 3 percentage points to 26% for LMICs in 2021, reversing the sharp increase in 2020.
• Pre-pandemic Levels: The 2021 ratio was similar to the 2019 prepandemic level, indicating a recovery.
• IDA Countries: The ratio of external debt to GNI rose from 20% in 2010 to 36.2% in 2021, far above the 2019 level of 32.8%.

2. Composition of External Debt

• Private Creditors: Became a larger share of external debt, particularly for public and publicly guaranteed debt.
  • 61% of the US$3.6 trillion in long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt was owed to private creditors by the end of 2021 (up from 46% in 2010).
  • IDA-eligible countries: The share of private debt increased fourfold, from 5% in 2010 to 21% in 2021.
• Short-Term Debt:
  • Accounted for half of the increase in net external debt inflows in 2021, despite representing only 27% of the total external debt stock.
  • 60% of short-term debt is attributed to trade credits and advances, with US$1.4 trillion estimated in 2021.
  • International trade rebound in 2021 significantly contributed to the rise in short-term debt.

3. Debt Service and Financial Pressures

• Debt Service Payments: Expected to increase by 35% from 2021 to 2022, reaching US$62 billion.
• Debt Service in 2023-2024: Likely to remain elevated due to high interest rates, maturing principal, and compounding of DSSI deferrals.
• Debt Distress: 60% of IDA-eligible countries are at high risk of debt distress or already in distress.
• Debt Service as a Share of GNI:
  • Increased from 1% in 2010 to 3% in 2021 for IDA-eligible countries.
  • This level has not been seen since 1997.

4. Role of Multilateral and Bilateral Creditors

• Multilateral Assistance:
  • US$108 billion in loan disbursements to LMICs in 2021, slightly above prepandemic levels.
  • US$12 billion from the IMF and US$40 billion from the World Bank.
  • US$11 billion in grants to IDA-eligible countries during 2020 and 2021.
• Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI):
  • 48 countries participated in DSSI, deferring US$8.9 billion in debt service payments for 2020 and 2021.
  • These countries also paid US$99 billion in total debt service, representing 4% of their combined GNI.
  • US$71 billion was used to service public and publicly guaranteed debt, of which US$16.1 billion went to bilateral official creditors.

5. Debt Transparency and Data Collection

• Debtor Reporting System (DRS):
  • Has been used since 1951 to collect external debt data from member countries.
  • 121 LMICs are included in the report.
  • Data Sources: Include DRS, IMF, World Bank, BIS, OECD, and other official and regional sources.
• Transparency Efforts:
  • 631 billion USD in previously unreported loan commitments were added to the database over the past five years.
  • 569 new debt indicators were introduced in the past three years, enhancing data specificity and creditor coverage.
• Data Coverage:
  • 60% of external debt stocks are reported through the DRS, while the remainder comes from other sources.
  • The report emphasizes the need for greater transparency to support debt sustainability analysis and policy formulation.

6. Impact of the Pandemic

• The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased external debt-to-GNI ratios, especially in 2020.
• Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) was a critical tool to alleviate debt burdens and support recovery.
• Global economic rebound in 2021 helped reduce the debt-to-GNI ratio, but financial pressures remain due to high interest rates and currency depreciation.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Debt Sustainability: Many LMICs face solvency challenges and unsustainable debt levels.
• Debt Composition: The shift toward private creditors has raised debt servicing costs and complicated debt coordination.
• Need for Transparency: The World Bank is advocating for greater transparency and disclosure from both debtors and creditors.
• Collaboration: A cooperative approach among creditors is essential for effective debt restructuring and sustainable management.

Conclusion

The International Debt Report 2022 underscores the complexity and risks associated with rising external debt in LMICs. It highlights the importance of debt transparency, data accuracy, and coordinated debt relief efforts to ensure sustainable development and macroeconomic stability. The report serves as a crucial reference for policy-making and debt restructuring initiatives, especially in the context of post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical uncertainties.