战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-April-2005_6页_136kb

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS UPDATE SUMMARY (April 2005)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on transnational threats, including terrorism, organized crime, money laundering, and trafficking, highlighting the evolving nature of these threats and the international efforts to combat them. It emphasizes the shift from traditional state-based threats to decentralized, networked actors, particularly Islamic extremists and organized criminal groups.

Main Points and Key Information

Terrorism

• Western Europe at High Risk: Aon Inc. reports increased terrorism risk in Western Europe due to domestic Islamic extremist activity, especially in Germany, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands. The U.S. and U.K. warn of potential attacks, with London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Belfast as likely targets.
• Al Qaeda in Kosovo: Reports suggest Al Qaeda has a presence in Kosovo, with Prizren being a stronghold. Extremists have used the region to launch attacks in Europe, the U.S., and Central Asia. The U.S. and Britain acknowledge links between Kosovo-based extremists and Al Qaeda.
• Guantanamo Detainees as Intelligence Source: The U.S. claims Guantanamo detainees provide critical intelligence on Al Qaeda's operations, including recruitment, bomb-making, and WMD interest. Some detainees were involved in attacks in Europe and the U.S. and had close ties to senior Al Qaeda leaders.
• Coercive Interrogation Concerns: Amnesty International criticizes the DOD report for not addressing whether coercive methods were used, raising doubts about the reliability of the information.

Terrorism Financing

• Arab Bank Linked to Terror Funding: Israeli and U.S. authorities found evidence that Arab Bank facilitated over $20 million in suspicious transactions for suspected terrorists and groups like Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The bank has faced potential lawsuits and fines for non-compliance with reporting laws.
• Global Financial Networks: The bank acted as a middleman, with funds passing through other institutions like Citigroup and Israel Discount Bank. The U.S. government has not disputed the bank's compliance claims.

Organized Crime

• Russian Organized Crime in Australia: Australian police identified Russian criminal networks involved in money laundering, child pornography, drug trafficking, and cybercrime. These groups are suspected of using offshore banks in the Pacific and exploiting the country's technological infrastructure.
• EU Combating Crime Efforts: EU ministers agreed to improve coordination and information sharing on criminal records, focusing on organized crime, terrorists, and sex offenders. A pilot project between Germany, Belgium, France, and Spain was initiated following a cross-border child killing case.

Money Laundering

• Arab Anti-Money Laundering Measures: The Arab banking association, under FATF, has established a regional task force to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. Measures include transparency and coordination mechanisms.
• Switzerland's Progress: Switzerland reported a 5% decrease in money laundering cases, attributed to stricter regulations. However, there was an increase in suspected terror funding cases.
• Russia's Money-Laundering Crisis: Russia faces a significant money laundering problem, with the amount ranging from dozens of millions to up to 50-60 billion rubles. The government is concerned about remittances from migrant workers being used for illicit activities.

Trafficking

• Major Drug Trafficking Gang Dismantled: A multi-national operation led to the seizure of 605 kg of heroin in Turkey, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Germany. The gang used the Balkan route to smuggle heroin from Afghanistan.
• Human Trafficking Surge: Human trafficking is now the second-largest organized crime globally, with estimated annual profits of $7–12 billion. In the U.S., most victims are female, with 80% involved in the commercial sex trade. Florida is a major destination for trafficking victims.
• Victims' Vulnerability: Victims are often lured by promises of jobs or education and are then forced into prostitution or domestic servitude. Many are afraid to report due to fear of deportation or retaliation.

Conclusion

The document underscores the growing complexity of transnational threats, with terrorism and organized crime becoming more decentralized and technologically enabled. It highlights the need for international cooperation, stronger financial regulations, and increased awareness to combat these issues effectively. The role of financial institutions, intelligence agencies, and cross-border law enforcement collaboration is emphasized as critical in addressing the evolving threat landscape.