2024-06-23-国际清算银行-优雅老龄化_引导银行业通过人口结构转变（英）_55页_2mb

Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts

Summary

This paper examines the impact of demographic aging on banking system stability in advanced economies from 2000-2022, finding a bifurcated effect: aging leads to a decline in average bank risk but an increase in tail risks. Aging populations reduce loan demand and credit risk-taking due to lower economic activity, prompting banks to shift toward yield-seeking behaviors such as investing in government securities or expanding internationally. This structural change, while improving average stability metrics like Z-Scores, introduces new vulnerabilities through unfamiliar activities. The study highlights the need for proactive policy measures and scenario analyses to address potential tail risks as global aging intensifies.