2024-09-29-美联储-贝弗里奇曲线告诉我们软着陆的可能性是什么_（英）_39页_570kb

Beveridge Curve and Labor Market Dynamics

• Introduction and Context
  The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions to the U.S. labor market, characterized by a sharp rise in unemployment and record-breaking job vacancies. This study examines the likelihood of a soft landing (a mild recession) using the Beveridge curve model, which relates unemployment to job vacancies.

• Beveridge Curve Model
  The Beveridge curve is nonlinear and steepens at high vacancy-to-unemployment ratios. A tight labor market (high vacancies) reduces the impact of vacancy declines on unemployment, enabling a soft landing if layoffs remain unchanged.

• Soft Landing Analysis
  Starting from early 2022, a 2.4% decline in the vacancy rate (from ~7% to ~4.6%) would increase unemployment by ~0.85 percentage points under preferred model parameters. Actual data shows a smaller-than-expected increase (~0.2 pp), attributed to a modest decline in separation rates (layoffs).

• Key Factors
  The possibility of a soft landing hinges on avoiding significant layoffs. Factors contributing to limited layoffs included cyclical insensitivity of layoffs to job demand and employers' reluctance to cut staff after pandemic-induced labor shortages.

• Cross-Country and Regional Analysis
  Similar steepening of the Beveridge curve occurred in U.S. regions and other advanced economies (UK, Canada, Australia), confirming the model's applicability beyond the U.S. labor market.

• Conclusion
  While a soft landing is plausible under certain conditions, risks remain if economic shocks persist. Monitoring separations rates and wage trends is crucial for assessing future labor market outcomes.