2024-02-02-IMF-是什么导致贝弗里奇曲线在疫情期间在美国变高_45页_3mb

Analysis and Summary of IMF Working Paper: "What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?"

The Beveridge curve in the United States shifted substantially upward post-COVID-19, indicating a tighter labor market despite declining unemployment rates. This shift is attributed to several factors:

1. Labor Shortages: The labor force was approximately 1.8 million below pre-pandemic projections at the start of 2023 due to:

   • COVID-related mortality,
   • Reduced immigration (particularly work-related visas),
   • Lower labor participation among older workers (especially those aged 65+).

2. Sectoral Shifts: States with higher employment in contact-intensive sectors (e.g., leisure & hospitality, retail trade) experienced larger upward shifts in the Beveridge curve, reflecting reallocation effects driven by changing consumer preferences and pandemic-induced disruptions.

3. Demographic Factors: A decline in older worker participation rates (2 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels) and excess mortality (particularly among prime-age workers) contributed significantly to the labor shortage.

4. Google Mobility Data: Reduced mobility in retail and recreation locations was negatively correlated with larger upward shifts, indicating behavioral changes during the pandemic.

5. High Job Flows and Low Layoffs: Job-to-job transitions increased, while layoffs decreased, contributing to the upward shift. A labor shortage intensified competition for workers, leading to higher hiring intensity and vacancies.

6. Theoretical Model: A search and matching model incorporating on-the-job search (OJS) shows that a labor shortage boosting marginal labor productivity can cause a vertical shift in the Beveridge curve. This effect persists even as separation rates fall.

Implications: The shift has macroeconomic consequences, including inflationary pressures due to tight labor markets. As pandemic-related factors fade, partial renormalization of the curve may occur, but structural changes like sectoral reallocation could persist.