IMF-是什么导致贝弗里奇曲线在疫情期间在美国变高？（英）-2024.1-44页_3mb

报告摘要

What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?

Introduction

The Beveridge curve in the U.S. shifted upward significantly after the COVID-19 pandemic began. Unemployment returned to pre-pandemic levels, but vacancies increased from about 4.5% to 6.5% of the labor force. This shift reflects structural changes, including labor shortages and reallocation effects, rather than purely cyclical factors.

Literature Review

Studies indicate that post-pandemic Beveridge curve shifts are linked to sectoral reallocation and the role of on-the-job search (OJS). Existing models often incorporate OJS to explain labor market dynamics, such as job-to-job flows and wage premiums.

Key Drivers of Shift

Labor Shortages: Caused by:
- COVID-related mortality and reduced immigration.
- Increased retirements, lowering labor force participation, especially among older workers.
- A conservative estimate suggests a 1.1% shortfall relative to pre-pandemic projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
Reallocation Effects: Pandemic-induced changes in consumer spending and social distancing altered sectoral labor flows, increasing separations and vacancies.
On-the-Job Search (OJS): Labor shortages boosted the marginal product of labor, incentivizing firms to post more vacancies and increasing OJS among employed workers. This crowded out unemployed workers, heightening competition and shifting the curve upward.

Empirical Evidence

State-Level Analysis: Using JOLTS and BLS data, covariates like I-94 visa shortfalls (proxy for immigration decline), vulnerable sector shares, participation rate changes, and excess deaths correlated positively with Beveridge curve shifts.
Regression Results: Factors such as reduced mobility, sectoral disruption, and mortality drove shifts, with labor shortages being a significant contributor.

Model Findings

A search and matching model augmented with OJS shows that a labor shortage increases the marginal product of labor, reducing layoffs but boosting OJS and vacancies. A 5% marginal productivity shock led to a ~0.75 percentage point increase in the vacancy rate at low unemployment levels, demonstrating the crowding-out effect of OJS.

Conclusion

The upward shift in the Beveridge curve is attributed to labor shortages and reallocation effects. Over time, factors like retirements and immigration may normalize, but sectoral adjustments could persist. The OJS mechanism is crucial in explaining the shift, particularly at lower unemployment levels.