IEA：2024年西北欧氢监测报告_101页_3mb

Summary of Northwest European Hydrogen Monitor 2024

Northwest Europe is at the forefront of low-emissions hydrogen development, accounting for roughly 50% of Europe's total hydrogen demand. The region's strengths include significant untapped renewable energy potential in the North Sea, a well-developed interconnected gas network that can be repurposed for hydrogen transmission, and ambitious policy ambitions. By 2030, Northwest European countries aim to develop 30-40 GW of electrolyser capacity, which could supply up to 7 Mt/year of low-emissions hydrogen, though most projects are still in early stages, highlighting the need for supportive policies to unlock investment.

Government policies and regulations are rapidly advancing, with countries like Germany, France, and the UK setting clear production targets and regulatory frameworks. Key initiatives include the EU's Hydrogen Strategy, which targets 40 GW renewable hydrogen capacity by 2030, and national programs offering subsidies, auctions, and tax incentives. These measures aim to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, enhance energy security, and foster cross-border trade.

Demand for low-emissions hydrogen is concentrated in sectors like refining, chemicals, and transport, with renewable hydrogen use targets set at 42% in industry and 1-5% in transport by 2030. Current supply is limited, with fossil-based hydrogen dominating at 99%, but demand creation and cost reductions are expected to drive growth.

Supply challenges include high production costs; however, renewable and electrolytic hydrogen costs are projected to decline significantly under the IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario, becoming cost-competitive by 2030 due to falling technology costs and carbon pricing. International collaborations for imports and exports are ramping up, with projects focusing on trade routes and partnerships with countries like Australia, Chile, and Morocco.

Infrastructure development is crucial for scaling up hydrogen deployment. By 2030, the region could see its pipeline network expand from ~1,600 km to over 18,000 km, primarily through repurposing existing natural gas pipelines. Underground storage projects are advancing, supporting seasonal and short-term flexibility. Policies and investments in transmission and storage are key to enabling hydrogen's role as an energy carrier and addressing evolving energy system needs.

Overall, Northwest Europe is positioned to lead in low-emissions hydrogen markets, but obstacles such as early-stage project development, high costs, and policy coordination must be addressed to achieve decarbonization goals and ensure energy sustainability.