20231128-格林期货-尿素早报_2页_284kb

Urea Market Report Summary

品种观点

The domestic urea market showed a continuing decline yesterday, with a drop of 20 to 80 yuan per ton, though some regional factors helped stabilize prices; mainstream prices for small and medium granular urea range from 2320 to 2400 yuan per ton, with a short-term interval震荡 due to increased fertilizer capacity utilization and potential benefits from gas-plant shutdowns.

操作建议

Recommendation includes观望 or逢低 short多 for brief trades.

利多因素

Urea port inventory increased by 020,000 tons compared to last month, with a 63% rise; fertilizer capacity utilization climbed to 42.81%, up 5.22%; melamine capacity utilization dropped to 65.12%, down 0.54%, providing support to prices.

利空因素

Urea exports in October were 5.616 million tons, less than September's 1.19 million tons; domestic inventory growth added 77,000 tons, totaling 436.3 million tons; overall production capacity utilization fell by 0.32% to 80.46%; and policy risks are noted.

风险因素

Key risks involve fluctuations in the renminbi value, coal price movements, agricultural demand developments, and global urea market changes.