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Russian Military Strategy Summary

Core Content

This report, published by the RAND Corporation in 2021, examines the development of Russian military strategy in the context of its perceived overall weakness compared to NATO. It explores how Russia intends to counter this weakness and whether it is preparing for a preemptive strike or a defensive posture in the initial period of war.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Russian Perceived Weakness and NATO Superiority

• Russia perceives itself as the weaker power in the global military-political confrontation with NATO.
• This contrasts with Western assessments that focus on Russia's military advantages along its western periphery.
• The contradiction between local superiority and overall weakness leads to the question of whether Russia is preparing for a preemptive strike or a defensive strategy.

2. Russian Military Strategy Orientation

• Russian military strategy appears to be oriented toward preemption and destruction rather than attrition or defense.
• The strategy involves using ready forces to strike NATO at the outset of the war.
• The goal is to functionally destroy key targets and disrupt NATO's ability to conduct an aerospace attack.
• A contact war on the ground is also considered, but only if Russia can deny air superiority and disrupt NATO's supply lines.

3. Asymmetric Targeting and Indirect Approach

• Russia focuses on asymmetric targeting of military and nonmilitary infrastructure.
• This includes the destruction of C4ISR systems (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), which support NATO's aerospace attack.
• The strategy also includes destruction of military-industrial capacity and infrastructure in NATO countries to instill panic and reduce the will to fight.

4. Historical and Contemporary Influence

• Russian strategy is influenced by the Soviet-era concept of strategic defense, particularly the ideas of Aleksandr Svechin.
• However, the current strategy seems to emphasize total war rather than limited conflict.
• The late 1930s Air War Plans Division-1 is cited as a historical parallel, aiming to destroy critical infrastructure without the precision and range of modern technology.

5. Challenges in Execution

• Munitions capacity is a major challenge, as precision strikes are resource-intensive.
• Command and control (C2) coordination across multiple joint strategic commands (JSCs) is a complex requirement.
• The merging of SODCIT (Strategic Operations Directorate of the General Staff) with the nuclear forces command aims to improve coordination and allocation of forces and targets.

6. Nuclear Strategy Considerations

• The nuclear question is a key factor in the destruction-attrition debate.
• Nuclear weapons are seen as a means of deterrence but not necessarily as a tool for decisive destruction.
• The risk of nuclear escalation is high, and Russia does not plan to use strategic nuclear weapons preemptively.
• The possibility of a protracted war is considered, especially if the initial period of war does not lead to a decisive outcome.

7. Future War and Strategic Planning

• The report suggests that the character of future war is likely to be a combination of conventional and nuclear elements.
• Strategic operations are expected to be coordinated and simultaneous, targeting NATO's aerospace and ground capabilities.
• The initial period of war is seen as crucial, with Russia aiming to seize the initiative and strike the decisive blow.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure S.1 illustrates the Russian view on the character of future war into the 2030s, emphasizing the use of long-range precision strike and functional destruction.
• Figure S.2 outlines potential Russian actions in a future great power war, including a sequence of retaliatory measures targeting NATO's aerospace and ground infrastructure.

Conclusion

• The report concludes that Russian military strategy is oriented toward destruction and preemption in the initial period of war.
• Despite perceived weakness, Russia is preparing for a conventional theater operation that could lead to a protracted conflict.
• The integration of nuclear and conventional forces under the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and General Staff is a key trend.
• The report also suggests that Russia is hedging against protracted war by engaging more closely with China and improving its state mobilization system.

Research Scope and Methodology

• The report is part of ongoing research on Russian military assessments and planning.
• It uses a combination of historical analysis, contemporary military doctrine, and strategic assumptions to assess the orientation of Russian military strategy.
• The research is conducted by the RAND National Security Research Division, with funding from the Russia Strategic Initiative and the United States European Command.

Abbreviations

• ALCM: Air-Launched Cruise Missile
• SLCM: Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile
• UAS: Unmanned Aerial System
• C2: Command and Control
• C4ISR: Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
• JSC: Joint Strategic Command
• SODCIT: Strategic Operations Directorate of the General Staff

References

• Svechin, Aleksandr A. Strategy, edited by Kent D. Lee, 1991.
• FitzGerald, Mary, and Raymond Garthoff. Soviet Military Policy, 1992.
• Burenok, V. M. Razvitie systemy vooruzheniia i novyi oblik Vooruzhennykh sil RF, 2009.
• RAND Corporation. Russian Military Strategy, 2022.