20180619-加拿大皇家银行-COMMODITY_PRICE_MONITOR_7页_838kb

报告摘要

RBC Commodity Price Index Summary (June 19, 2018)

Core Content

The RBC Commodity Price Index is a Fisher chain-weighted index that tracks the spot or transaction prices of 24 of the top Canadian-produced commodities. The index is weighted by the share of exports and is updated annually in February. It provides an overview of the performance of various commodity sub-indices, including energy products, agricultural products, forest products, non-precious metals & minerals, and precious metals.

Key Information

The RBC commodity price index rose by 4.1% in May 2018, following a 3.3% increase in April.
The index excluding energy products increased by 2.9% in May and was 20.7% higher than a year earlier.
The overall index was 27.1% higher than in May 2017, reaching its highest level since October 2014.
Precious metals were the only sub-index to decline, falling 2.2% in May, likely due to Fed tightening and a strong USD.

Main Points

Energy Products Sub-Index

Rose 5.4% in May, marking a new high for crude oil prices.
Crude oil increased by 5.6%, reaching its highest monthly average since November 2014.
Coal prices saw a strong recovery, rising 11.9% in May.
The energy products sub-index was 35.5% higher than a year ago.

Agricultural Products Sub-Index

Rose 0.6% in May, with barley and wheat continuing to rise.
Wheat prices were 16.9% higher than a year ago.
Barley prices were 42.9% higher than in May 2017.
Canola prices rose 7.4% in May, with a year-over-year increase of 14.8%.
Corn prices increased by 12.9% in May.
Potatoes prices rose 7.8% in May.
Live cattle prices declined by 8.8% in May.
Live hogs prices were -5.4% in May.
Fresh salmon prices fell by 35.3% in May, with uncertainty around the impact of import halts from Japan and South Korea.

Forest Products Sub-Index

Rose 9.5% in May, continuing its strong performance.
Lumber prices hit a new record, rising 62.2% year-over-year.
The forest products sub-index was up 43.9% since last May and 20% since the start of the year.

Non-Precious Metals & Minerals Sub-Index

Increased 1.1% in May.
Aluminum rose 2.0%, and nickel surged 3.0%.
Nickel prices were 56.8% higher than a year ago.
The non-precious metals & minerals sub-index was 17.8% higher than in May 2017.
U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum were announced on May 31st, with potential impacts to be analyzed in the next report.

Precious Metals Sub-Index

Declined 2.2% in May, with gold falling 2.3% due to Fed tightening and a strong USD.

Summary of Sub-Index Performance

Sub-Index	Month-over-Month % Change	Year-over-Year % Change
Energy products	5.4%	35.5%
Agricultural products	0.6%	7.4%
Forest products	9.5%	43.9%
Non-precious metals & minerals	1.1%	17.8%
Precious metals	-2.2%	-3.3%

Notes

The index ex-energy was 2.9% higher in May and 20.7% higher year-over-year.
Crude oil prices were 44.3% higher than in May 2017.
Coal prices were 41.5% higher than a year ago.
Natural gas prices fell 11.1% in May.
Newsprint prices increased by 12.0% in May.
Pulp prices rose 17.7% year-over-year.
Aluminum prices were 19.7% higher in May.
Copper prices increased 22.0% in May.
Iron ore prices rose 5.9% in May.
Lead prices were 10.9% higher in May.
Zinc prices fell 18.1% in May.
Potash prices remained stable at 3.3% year-over-year.
Uranium prices were 0.1% higher in May.

Conclusion

The RBC commodity price index showed positive momentum in May 2018, with most sub-indices rising. Energy products and forest products were the strongest performers, while precious metals declined. The agricultural products sub-index had a modest increase, with wheat and barley leading the way, but fresh salmon and live hogs faced downward pressure. The non-precious metals & minerals sub-index also saw a rise, with nickel being the top performer. The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to have an impact, and further analysis will be provided in the next report.