加拿大银行-加拿大-宏观经济-一月商品价格指数走高-20180221-7页_543kb

报告摘要

RBC Commodity Price Index: A Fisher chain-weighted index of spot or transaction prices for 24 top Canadian-produced commodities.
Weights: Determined by the share of exports and updated annually in February.
Index Components: Includes sub-indices for energy products, agricultural products, forest products, non-precious metals & minerals, and precious metals.
Source: RBC Economics Research, with data from Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, and other reliable sources.

The RBC commodity price index rose 8.6% in January 2018, marking the largest monthly gain since early 2016.
It increased 22% compared to January 2017.
The energy products sub-index contributed significantly, rising 13% in January and helping the overall index return to late 2014 levels.
The index excluding energy rose 5.0% in January.

Crude Oil (WTI): Rose 9.9% in January, driven by production issues in Venezuela, improved global economic growth forecasts, and declining oil reserves.
Natural Gas: Surged 40.6% in January due to record demand from colder-than-usual weather. Prices were 73% higher in January 2018 than in January 2016, converging toward the 10-year average.
Coal: Increased 27.5% in January, with prices reaching $106.8 per tonne, up from $57.5 in 2015.

Sub-index: Rose 2.2% in January, up 9.2% year-over-year.
Recovery: Continued recovery from the low in Q3-16, with a total increase of 24.4% since then.
Key Commodities:
- Wheat: Rose 9.6% year-over-year, reaching $271.6 per tonne.
- Corn: Rose -2.6% year-over-year, with prices at $155.8 per tonne.
- Canola: Rose 2.9% year-over-year, reaching $394.7 per tonne.
- Potatoes: Rose 23.4% year-over-year, with prices at $10.58 per cwt.
- Live Cattle: Rose -0.9% year-over-year, with prices at $116.0 per cwt.
- Live Hogs: Rose 10.4% year-over-year, with prices at $53.1 per cwt.
- Fresh Salmon: Rose 13.9% year-over-year, with prices at $9.84 per kg.

Sub-index: Rose 4.9% in January, up 42.2% year-over-year.
Lumber: Reached a record high, rising 59.3% in January.
Newsprint: Rose 3.1% year-over-year, with prices at $571.4 per tonne.
Pulp: Rose 20.3% year-over-year, with prices at $1197.6 per tonne.
Drivers: Strong supply and demand fundamentals, along with the ongoing softwood lumber dispute between the U.S. and Canada.

Sub-index: Rose 6.1% in January, up 36.6% since early 2016.
Nickel: Outperformed other components, rising 29.0% year-over-year, with prices at $5.84 per lb.
Copper: Rose 23.4% year-over-year, with prices at $3.21 per lb.
Aluminum: Rose 23.7% year-over-year, with prices at $1.00 per lb.
Iron Ore: Rose -5.1% year-over-year, with prices at $76.3 per tonne.
Lead: Rose 15.8% year-over-year, with prices at $1.17 per lb.
Zinc: Rose 27.1% year-over-year, with prices at $1.56 per lb.
Potash: Rose 4.7% year-over-year, with prices at $225.0 per tonne.
Uranium: Rose 15.7% year-over-year, with prices at $25.6 per lb.

Sub-index: Rose 5.4% in January, marking the first increase in five months.
Gold: Rose 11.7% year-over-year, reaching $1331.3 per ounce.
Silver: Rose 1.3% year-over-year, with prices at $17.1 per ounce.

Energy Products: Driven by geopolitical tensions, economic forecasts, and supply-demand dynamics.
Agricultural Products: Recovery from previous lows and strong demand.
Forest Products: Lumber prices surged due to strong fundamentals and trade disputes.
Non-Precious Metals & Minerals: Recovery from multi-year lows, with nickel and copper leading the gains.
Precious Metals: Benefited from U.S. dollar weakness and increased demand.

The report contains proprietary information from Royal Bank of Canada and is for informational purposes only.
No warranties or guarantees are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the data.
The statistics are based on information from reliable sources, but are not guaranteed.

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