2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sri_Lanka_Staff_Report_for_the_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Request_for_a_Three_120页_2mb

报告摘要

IMF Country Report No. 16/150: Sri Lanka

Core Content Summary

The IMF Executive Board approved a three-year extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Sri Lanka amounting to SDR 1.1 billion (about US$1.5 billion, or 185 percent of quota) on June 3, 2016. This arrangement is intended to support economic reform, macroeconomic stability, and external sustainability. It also aims to catalyze an additional US$650 million in multilateral and bilateral financing, bringing total support to about US$2.15 billion.

The program is structured around six pillars:

Fiscal Consolidation – Aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2020.
Revenue Mobilization – Through tax reform, improving tax administration, and increasing tax revenues.
Public Financial Management Reform – Enhancing budget transparency, expenditure control, and public accountability.
State Enterprise Reform – Improving the efficiency and competitiveness of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).
Monetary Policy Effectiveness – Transitioning to flexible inflation targeting and exchange rate flexibility.
Trade and Investment Reforms – Promoting greater integration with global markets, outward orientation, and reducing fiscal risks.

The IMF Staff Report highlights that Sri Lanka's economy is operating slightly below its potential in 2015, with real GDP growth at 4.8 percent, driven by tourism and agriculture. However, construction and manufacturing growth slowed, indicating a decline in investment. Headline inflation dropped to 2.8 percent by end-2015, but core inflation remained high at 4.5 percent, while private credit growth surged to 25 percent, exceeding the authorities' benchmark of 15-16 percent.

Key Economic Indicators (2014–2020)

Indicator	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Real GDP Growth	4.9	4.8	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.2	5.4
Inflation (average)	3.3	0.9	4.1	5.3	5.1	5.0	5.0
Inflation (end-of-period)	2.1	2.8	5.4	5.2	5.0	5.0	5.0
Core Inflation (end-of-period)	3.2	4.5	4.5	4.3	4.1	4.1	4.1
National Savings	24.5	25.9	26.9	26.0	26.2	25.9	25.7
National Investment	27.0	28.4	28.3	28.8	29.3	29.2	29.2
Savings-Investment Balance	-2.5	-2.5	-1.5	-2.8	-3.1	-3.3	-3.4
Central Government Debt	70.7	76.0	77.2	75.5	73.1	70.7	68.2
Public Debt (as % of GDP)	53.8	55.1	55.8	55.9	56.3	57.1	56.5

Fiscal and Balance of Payments Developments

The government fiscal deficit rose to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2015, driven by higher expenditures (19.9% of GDP) due to post-election wage hikes, increased interest bills, and income transfer programs.
Revenue increased slightly to 13.1 percent of GDP, largely due to one-off measures and temporary surges in vehicle imports.
The current account deficit remained at 2.5 percent of GDP, despite improved terms of trade.
Capital outflows and slow implementation of projects contributed to balance of payments deterioration.
Foreign exchange reserves declined from 87 percent of the ARA metric in 2014 to 76 percent in 2015, and reserves cover dropped from 4.3 to 3.8 months of imports.

Main Challenges and Risks

Fiscal sustainability is a key concern, with a target of reducing the deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2020.
Exchange rate volatility and capital flow pressures have led to downward pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee.
Investor confidence has been affected by global market volatility and domestic policy uncertainty.
SOEs account for significant liabilities, with financial obligations of Rs. 1.28 trillion (11.4% of GDP) and government guarantees for 3.4% of GDP.
Program risks are substantial due to complex reforms and the need for strong political commitment.

IMF Staff Recommendations

Fiscal consolidation should focus on revenue increases and expenditure control.
Tax reform is critical to improving revenue and creating an efficient, equitable system.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) needs to exit from its current intervention framework and shift to flexible inflation targeting.
Exchange rate flexibility is essential to adjust to external shocks and rebuild reserves.
Trade and investment reforms should enhance competitiveness and external sustainability.
Public financial management needs to be strengthened to ensure accountability and efficiency.

Program Implementation and Disbursement

The first disbursement of SDR 119.894 million (US$168.1 million) was made immediately.
The remainder of the funds will be disbursed in six installments, based on quarterly reviews.
The program is expected to catalyze additional financing from multilateral and bilateral sources, bringing total support to around US$2.2 billion.

Key Stakeholders Involved

Mission Members: Mr. Schneider (Head), Mr. Nozaki, Mr. Washimi (all APD), Ms. Diouf (SPR), Ms. Kvintradze (Resident Representative), Mr. Wijeweera (Local Economist).
Participants: Ms. Kochhar (APD), Ms. Gunaratne (OED), S. George, M. Inoue, and Q. Zhang.
Officials Consulted: Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, Finance Minister Karunanayake, CBSL Governor Mahendran, Secretary to the Treasury Samarathunga, and other senior officials and private sector representatives.

Conclusion

The IMF-supported program is designed to address Sri Lanka's macroeconomic imbalances, reform the fiscal and monetary framework, and enhance external sustainability. The success of the program hinges on strong political will, effective implementation, and market confidence. The reforms outlined aim to stabilize the economy, reduce fiscal risks, and promote long-term growth.