期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Winter1997-98_1_38页_3mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Winter 1997/8

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Winter 1997/8 highlights the evolving focus of labor economics within the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It emphasizes the increasing importance of microeconomic labor issues in economic analysis, as well as the broader implications of inequality, labor institutions, firm behavior, and econometric methods.

Main Topics and Key Findings

1. Labor Economics and Inequality

• Shift in Focus: Labor economics has moved from being a secondary area to a central focus in economic research, especially regarding the U.S. earnings distribution and the decline in the economic position of low-skilled workers.
• Inequality Drivers: Researchers have examined various factors contributing to inequality, including trade, technology, education, and family background, but consensus on the relative magnitudes of these factors remains elusive.
• Women in the Labor Market: Women have shown improvement in earnings differentials, particularly at higher skill levels. Studies explore the impact of childbearing, school content, and institutional factors on female progress.
• Childbearing and Family Background: Family characteristics significantly influence young people's economic outcomes. Programs and interventions aimed at improving children's well-being are under scrutiny.
• Crime and Economic Outcomes: There is a strong link between crime and economic conditions, with studies analyzing crime distribution, wages, domestic violence, and employment effects.

2. Labor Institutions

• Comparative Studies: Researchers have expanded their focus to labor institutions in other countries, such as Sweden, France, and Germany, to understand the U.S. labor market's strengths and weaknesses.
• Unemployment Insurance: The U.S. system has low take-up rates, and studies examine its development and implications on labor supply.
• Social Insurance Programs: Research on disability insurance and other social insurance programs has highlighted their impact on labor market outcomes.
• Employee Ownership and Firm Performance: Evidence suggests that packages of human resource practices, including employee ownership, significantly enhance firm productivity.

3. Labor Demand and Firm Behavior

• Wage Subsidies: These can modestly improve the demand for disadvantaged workers.
• Work Hours and Affirmative Action: Studies examine the demand for labor hours and the effect of affirmative action on employee qualifications.
• Firm Structure and Organization: Research on works councils, worker cooperatives, and internal organizational structures contributes to understanding firm performance.

4. Econometric Issues

• Instrumental Variables: The use of instrumental variables to infer behavioral responses has become more sophisticated, with a focus on local average treatment effects (LATE).
• Data and Testing: Large datasets have enabled more detailed statistical testing and new strategies for analyzing economic incentives and responses.

Research Summaries

1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting

• Inflation Targeting Regime: Introduced in the 1990s by several countries, it involves setting a quantitative inflation target and using it as a central policy focus.
• Characteristics: Includes transparency, accountability, and a floating exchange rate (except for Finland and Spain). Central banks often use internal inflation forecasts to guide policy.
• Price-Level Targeting: A different approach where the price level is kept constant or on a steady path, leading to less uncertainty in long-term economic decisions.

2. Strict vs. Flexible Inflation Targeting

• Strict Targeting: Focuses solely on inflation, requiring rapid adjustments to the monetary policy instrument.
• Flexible Targeting: Allows for some consideration of output and real exchange rate stability, leading to more gradual adjustments and longer horizons.

3. Monitoring Inflation Targeting

• Transparency and Accountability: Central banks regularly publish inflation reports, which aid in monitoring performance and public accountability.
• Performance Evaluation: External experts and observers can assess the quality of analysis and the alignment of forecasts with inflation targets.

Key Researchers and Contributions

• Richard B. Freeman: Highlights the shift in labor economics focus and the large number of research papers produced.
• David Card and Alan Krueger: Analyze school resources and their impact on student outcomes.
• Casey Ichniowski, Kathryn Shaw, and Giovanna Pennushi: Show the importance of human resource practices in firm productivity.
• Joshua Angrist, Guido Imbens, and Don Rubins: Develop the concept of local average treatment effects (LATE).
• Lars E.O. Svensson: Focuses on inflation targeting, its implications, and the distinction between inflation and price-level targeting.

Selected References

• WP 6213, 10/97: Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman on rising pay of higher-level workers.
• WP 5093, 4/95: John DiNardo, Nicole M. Fortin, and Thomas Lemieux on labor market institutions and wage distribution.
• WP 5333, 11/95: Casey Ichniowski, Kathryn Shaw, and Giovanna Pennushi on human resource practices and productivity.
• WP 5708, 8/96: David Card and Alan Krueger on school resources and student outcomes.
• WP 5822, 11/96: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence F. Katz on the natural rate of unemployment.
• WP 5889, 1/97: Katherine Baicker, Claudia Goldin, and Lawrence F. Katz on U.S. unemployment compensation.

Conclusion

The NBER's Labor Studies Program has grown significantly, reflecting the increased importance of labor economics in economic research. The focus on inequality, labor institutions, and econometric methods underscores the complexity of the labor market and the need for both empirical and theoretical analysis. Inflation targeting, as a monetary policy tool, has gained prominence, with ongoing debates about its effectiveness and the potential for price-level targeting in the future.