战略与国际研究中心-Irans-Evolving-Military-Forces_66页_1022kb

Summary of "Iran's Evolving Military Forces" by Anthony H. Cordesman (July 2004)

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the evolving military forces of Iran and the broader Gulf military balance, focusing on the dynamics between Iran, Iraq, and the Southern Gulf states, as well as the role of external powers like the US and UK. It also examines Iran's military modernization efforts, its involvement in proliferation and asymmetric warfare, and the impact of historical events on the region's military landscape.

Main Points of the Gulf Military Balance

• The Gulf military balance is a "four-cornered" balancing act between Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Southern Gulf states, with the US and UK playing a critical role in power projection.
• Yemen, though with limited military power, remains a significant regional player due to its strategic location and large population.
• Iraq's dominance in the Gulf was short-lived after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War, which severely weakened its military capabilities.
• The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 led to the destruction of its armed forces and created a major power vacuum in the region.
• The Southern Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) have built up their military forces, but with limited cooperation and no joint capabilities due to internal rivalries and reliance on US and British protection.
• The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was formed in 1980 to counter Iran's influence, but it has not resulted in meaningful military collaboration.

Iran's Military Modernization and Challenges

• Iran's military is still large by regional standards, with 540,000 active personnel and 350,000 reserves, but its forces are largely conscript-based with limited training and combat experience.
• The Iranian Army includes:
  • 4 corps
  • 4 armored divisions
  • 6 infantry divisions
  • 2 commando brigades
  • 1 airborne brigade
  • Other smaller independent formations
• Iran's tank inventory is extensive but includes many obsolete and worn-out models. The main battle tanks include:
  • M-47/M-48 (approx. 150)
  • M-60A1 (150-160)
  • Chieftain Mark 3/5 (200)
  • T-62 (75)
  • T-72/T-72S (400)
  • T-54/T-55 (250)
  • T-59 (150-250)
  • T-69II (150-250)
  • Zulfiqar (100)
• Only part of Iran's tank inventory is fully operational, and its sustainable operational strength is estimated to be less than 1,000 tanks.
• The T-72S is the only Iranian tank with advanced fire control systems and modern anti-armor capabilities.
• The Zulfiqar is a domestically developed tank with 125mm smoothbore gun and welded steel turret, and is believed to have similar upgrades to the T-72.

Key Trends and Data

Military Manpower (2003)

Key Trends in Military Expenditures (1985–2002)

• Iran outspent Iraq significantly before 1979, but this trend reversed during the Iran-Iraq War.
• After the war, Iraq's military expenditures were boosted by Kuwaiti and Saudi loans, as well as European and FSU arms sales.
• UN sanctions after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait drastically reduced Iraq's arms imports.
• Iran recovered its spending lead after 1991, though estimates are uncertain.

Arms Orders and Deliveries (1994–2002)

• Iraq had a large number of arms deliveries and agreements before 1990, but these dropped to zero after the Gulf War.
• Iran also saw a decline in arms deliveries, though it maintained some activity.
• The main suppliers to the North Gulf were:
  • Russia: Largest supplier to Iran, with 1,000 T-72 tanks ordered.
  • China: Provided some arms, especially in the later years.
  • Eastern Europe: Increased arms deliveries to Iran after 1999.
  • US: No significant arms deliveries to Iran or Iraq after 1990.

Key Military Trends

• Iran's military has been significantly weakened since the 1980s, especially after the Gulf War.
• Iraq's defeat in 2003 created a power vacuum in the Gulf, but asymmetric warfare has emerged as a major threat.
• Iran has focused on asymmetric capabilities, including:
  • Revolutionary Guards Corps (PASDARAN): A major force in supporting asymmetric warfare.
  • Support for non-state actors: Including Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
• Iran has been more successful in acquiring weapons of mass destruction than Iraq, though it has joined the Chemical Weapons Convention and pledged to destroy its chemical weapons.
• Iran has allowed full inspections of its nuclear facilities by the IAEA after the disclosure of its covert nuclear programs.

Conclusion

The Gulf military balance has been shaped by external powers, especially the US and UK, and the rivalry between Iran and Iraq. The Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) was a major test of this balance, with Iraq emerging as the dominant power but later suffering from economic and military decline. The 2003 invasion of Iraq drastically altered the balance, and while Iran has rebuilt some conventional capabilities, it still lags in modernization and effective military operations. Asymmetric warfare and terrorism have become the new threats, and Iran's military modernization remains erratic and politically influenced.