战略与国际研究中心-The-Military-Balance-in-the-Middle-East_-The-Northern-and-Southern-Gulf_122页_1mb

Summary of The Military Balance in the Middle East – The Gulf

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the military balance in the Middle East, with a focus on the Gulf region. It examines the military developments in both the Northern and Southern Gulf, highlighting the historical and ongoing dynamics between Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The analysis is also influenced by external powers such as the United Kingdom and the United States, which have historically played a key role in maintaining regional stability.

Main Points

• The Gulf Military Balance is a complex interplay between Iran, Iraq, and the Southern Gulf states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE), as well as external powers like the UK and US.
• Yemen, though with limited military power, remains a significant regional factor due to its strategic location and shared borders with Saudi Arabia and Oman.
• Military developments in the North Gulf have been dominated by the rivalry between Iran and Iraq, particularly during the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), which was one of the most destructive conflicts in the Middle East.
• Iraq's military collapse followed its defeat in the 2003 invasion, leading to a major power vacuum in the Gulf. The country had been weakened by war and UN sanctions, limiting its ability to modernize or acquire weapons.
• Iran's military modernization has been erratic, with a shift from Western suppliers to Russia, China, and Eastern Europe after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Despite efforts, Iran's military capabilities have not fully recovered to pre-1979 levels.
• The Southern Gulf states have invested heavily in their military forces, especially Saudi Arabia, which has been the primary driver of regional military spending. However, their efforts lack cohesion due to internal rivalries and a reliance on US and UK power projection.
• The GCC was established in 1980 as a response to the threat from revolutionary Iran, but it has not led to significant military cooperation among its members.
• External influences such as the US and UK have historically counterbalanced the power of Iran and Iraq, with the US playing a key role in supporting Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War and later opposing it during the Gulf War and 2003 invasion.
• Asymmetric warfare and terrorism have become major factors in the Gulf's military landscape, particularly after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Iran has also supported non-state actors in the region.
• Military expenditures and arms imports have varied significantly between the Northern and Southern Gulf states. After the Gulf War, Iraq's ability to import arms was severely restricted, while Iran's arms imports decreased over time.
• The military balance has shifted in favor of the Southern Gulf states, which have greater resources and access to modern weapons, but still face challenges in developing joint capabilities and interoperability.

Key Information

• Iran and Iraq were the primary drivers of military competition in the Gulf until the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
• Iraq's military was devastated by the Gulf War and subsequent sanctions, leading to a significant reduction in its conventional capabilities.
• Iran's military capabilities have been affected by its reliance on outdated Western-supplied weapons and limited success in acquiring new systems.
• Southern Gulf states have focused on building up their own military forces, with Saudi Arabia being the largest contributor to military spending.
• The GCC has not fostered strong military cooperation, with each state pursuing its own military path.
• Terrorism and asymmetric warfare have emerged as critical challenges to the region, impacting both Iran and Iraq.
• Military modernization in the Gulf has been influenced by international relations, economic conditions, and strategic interests.

Key Figures and Trends

• Figure 6.1 compares the military forces of Gulf states in 2004, showing that Iran and Iraq had the largest active and reserve forces, while Southern Gulf states had smaller but more modern capabilities.
• Figure 6.2 highlights the military expenditures of Iran and Iraq from 1985 to 2002, showing that Iran outspent Iraq significantly before the 1979 revolution.
• Figure 6.3 illustrates the arms agreements and deliveries to Iran and Iraq from 1994 to 2002, revealing a major decline in arms imports for both countries after the Gulf War.
• Figure 6.4 shows the sources of arms imports for Iran and Iraq, indicating that both countries relied heavily on non-Western suppliers after 1990.
• Figure 8.1 tracks population growth in the Gulf, which has implications for military manpower and regional security.
• Figure 8.3 provides data on the major combat equipment strength in the Gulf in 2004, showing the relative strength of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery.
• Figure 8.4 outlines the trends in total active military manpower in the Gulf from 1979 to 2004, highlighting a decline in overall military personnel.

Conclusion

The Gulf's military balance has been shaped by historical conflicts, external interventions, and the strategic interests of regional and global powers. While Iran and Iraq were once the dominant military forces, their power has significantly diminished due to war, sanctions, and internal instability. The Southern Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, have taken a more active role in building up their military capabilities, but their efforts remain fragmented and lack full interoperability. The rise of asymmetric warfare and terrorism has introduced new challenges to the region, altering the traditional understanding of military power and security dynamics.