2018年-尼尔森欧洲_WhatsNextinEmergingMarkets_35页_2mb

Summary of "WHAT'S NEXT IN EMERGING MARKETS"

Core Content

The document explores the evolving dynamics of emerging markets, focusing on the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, particularly in the areas of snacks and beer. It highlights key growth trends, consumer behavior shifts, and the role of local manufacturers in driving innovation and market expansion. The report identifies five markets — Vietnam, Argentina, Brazil, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire — as being at a tipping point due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, rising incomes, and shifting consumer preferences.

Main Points

1. FMCG Growth in Emerging Markets

• Emerging markets are experiencing significantly higher FMCG sales growth (2–4 times that of developed markets).
• Snacks and beer are highlighted as key categories that reflect consumer readiness to spend on non-essentials.
• Snack sales are growing globally, with Asia Pacific being an exception where both volume and value are increasing.

2. Vietnam: A Key Market to Watch

• Vietnam is experiencing rapid economic growth with a GDP rate of 7.5% in Q3 2017.
• Snack and beer categories are leading the growth, with rural areas showing higher and more volatile growth.
• Local manufacturers are outperforming global players, with snacks growing at 47% versus 2% for global brands.
• The modern trade channel is expanding, driven by local mini marts, though traditional trade still dominates.
• By 2025, Vietnam will have 99.8 million residents, with 49% urban, and 11.9 million connected spenders expected to spend $119 billion.

3. Argentina: A Market on the Rise

• Argentina's economy is recovering, with GDP growth projected at 2.5% in 2018.
• Consumers are shifting towards cheaper grocery store brands and avoiding out-of-home meals.
• Local brands are driving snack growth, with a 47% increase in sales since 2016.
• Connected spenders are expected to grow to 11 million by 2025, contributing $218 billion in digital spend.

4. Brazil: A Market in Recovery

• Brazil's economy is recovering, with beer consumption leading the FMCG basket growth.
• The middle class, particularly millennials, have had a significant impact on FMCG volume declines.
• Private label and premium products are driving growth, with super premium beer increasing by 30% and premium beer by 7%.
• Connected spenders are expected to grow to 55.9 million by 2025, with a strong focus on digital engagement and convenience.

5. Ghana: A Fast-Growing African Market

• Ghana is predicted to be the fastest-growing African country in 2018 with a GDP of 7.8%.
• Inflation is at a three-year low, boosting consumer confidence and spending.
• Food and beverages are leading FMCG growth, with rural areas showing faster growth in non-essential categories.
• The population is expected to grow by 14% by 2025, with 39% moving to mixed-density cities.

Key Trends and Insights

1. Healthy and Portable Snacks

• Consumers are seeking healthier and more convenient snack options.
• Clean labels and product innovation are key trends, especially in countries like India and Costa Rica.
• In the U.S., "on-the-go" snacks grew by $1.1 billion, indicating a shift in consumer behavior.

2. Digital Connectivity and Connected Spenders

• Digital savviness is shaping consumer behavior, with connected spenders spending more online.
• In Vietnam, connected spenders will account for 50% of total consumer spend by 2025.
• In Brazil, mobile ad campaigns increased 15.9X between 2015 and 2016, highlighting the importance of digital engagement.

3. Policy and Health Trends

• Governments are implementing taxes and labeling reforms to promote healthier lifestyles.
• Preventable diseases are a growing concern, with consumers looking to improve their eating habits.
• The trend towards healthier food is evident in both snacks and beverages.

4. Local vs. Global Brands

• Local manufacturers are outperforming global players in many emerging markets.
• They are better at understanding local tastes and adapting to consumer needs.
• Global companies must innovate and focus on value, private label, and premium products to stay competitive.

5. Emerging City Trends

• Beer consumption is growing in mid- to high-density cities in emerging markets.
• These cities are becoming key growth areas, especially in Southeast Asia.
• Companies must adapt to local conditions such as refrigeration and distribution challenges.

Conclusion

Emerging markets are evolving rapidly, with increasing consumer spending on non-essentials like snacks and beer. Local brands are leading the charge, driven by innovation and a deep understanding of consumer needs. Digital connectivity is reshaping the retail landscape, and companies that adapt to these trends will be well-positioned to succeed. The future of these markets lies in premiumization, convenience, and alignment with consumer health and lifestyle preferences.