20160523-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb

报告摘要

China Cement Weekly Summary - May 23, 2016

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the cement sector in China, highlighting recent price trends, policy changes, and market dynamics as of May 23, 2016.

Cement Price Trends

Cement prices stabilized last week, with an overall increase of 0.06% week-on-week.
The national average cement price reached RMB 253.58/tonne.
Regional variations were observed:
- Fujian, Shaanxi, and Guizhou saw increases of RMB20-30/tonne.
- The Pearl River Delta and Hunan experienced declines of RMB10-20/tonne.
- East China saw a slight drop due to the rainy season.
- Northwest China experienced a price increase due to industry coordination and recovered demand.
Average inventory levels (nationwide) declined slightly to 67.87%.

Coal Price Trends

Coal prices have been stabilized for the last two months.
The Bohai-Rim Steam Coal (Q5500K) comprehensive average price index has remained at RMB389/tonne since early March.
The index was 6.0% lower year-on-year.

Supply Side Reform Policy

The State Council released new guidance on supply side reform for the construction materials industry.
The policy aims to have the top 10 cement producers achieve at least 60% market share by 2020.
As of the end of 2015, the top 10 companies controlled 54% of the market share, and the top 50 had 75%.
The policy prohibits new cement capacity from being added until 2020 and capacity installation through replacement until 2017.
The production of grade P.C.32.5 cement is to be terminated.
Facilities not meeting emission standards will face severe penalties or shutdowns.
A special fund for compensating companies exiting the market has not yet been established.

Stock Performance

The average decline in cement stocks under coverage was 1.2%.
Anhui Conch (914.HK) was the best performer, rising 1.0%.
CR Cement (1313.HK) was the weakest, declining 2.2%.

Valuation Table

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER 2015	PER 2016E	PER 2017E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	Net Debt/Equity (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	BUY	18.38	11,958	13.1	9.4	9.4	7.0	5.4
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	HOLD	3.42	2,367	25.3	6.4	6.5	9.9	9.5
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	4.76	5,629	11.4	7.7	7.2	8.7	7.3
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	HOLD	2.27	1,901	7.4	10.2	10.3	7.4	6.6
Simple Average	-	-	-	-	14.3	8.4	8.4	8.2	7.2
Weighted Average	-	-	-	-	13.5	8.7	8.6	7.8	6.4

EPS Growth and PEG

Company	Ticker	EPS Growth 2016E	EPS Growth 2017E	2016E CAGR	PEG 2016E	PEG 2015	ROE 2015	ROE 2016E	ROE 2017E	Dividend Yield 2015	Dividend Yield 2016E	Dividend Yield 2017E
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	46.2%	5.2%	24.0%	0.4	8.93	12.09	11.66	2.9	3.2	3.2	3.2
CNBM	3323 HK Equity	315.0%	2.4%	106.1%	0.1	1.49	5.95	5.80	1.3	2.1	2.3	2.3
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	-28.0%	-0.1%	-15.2%	-0.5	7.51	5.49	5.33	3.4	2.1	1.8	1.8
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	56.0%	11.1%	31.7%	0.3	5.41	7.42	7.70	2.2	1.5	1.5	1.5
Simple Average	-	97.3%	4.6%	36.7%	0.1	5.84	7.74	7.62	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2
Weighted Average	-	71.4%	5.9%	31.5%	0.3	7.10	9.65	9.45	2.2	2.5	2.5	2.5

Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	Market Cap (US$m)	PER 2015	PER 2016E	PER 2017E	PBR 2015	PBR 2016E	PBR 2017E	EV/EBITDA 2015	EV/EBITDA 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2017E
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	11,958	13.1	9.4	9.4	1.20	1.09	1.01	7.0	5.4	5.1
CNBM	3323 HK Equity	2,367	25.3	6.4	6.5	0.39	0.37	0.35	9.9	9.5	9.3
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	5,629	11.4	7.7	7.2	0.56	0.55	0.53	8.7	7.3	6.8
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	1,901	7.4	10.2	10.3	0.57	0.55	0.54	7.4	6.6	6.7
TCC International	1136 HK Equity	799	-	-	25.2	0.31	0.32	0.32	8.2	11.9	-
China National Materials	1893 HK Equity	756	6.4	7.3	5.4	0.33	0.31	0.28	6.9	6.5	6.5
Asia Cement	743 HK Equity	321	-	-	61.3	0.23	0.24	0.24	6.8	11.6	-
West China Cement	2233 HK Equity	1,077	-	26.1	12.7	0.31	0.32	0.32	9.4	8.9	8.9
Tianrui Cement	1252 HK Equity	674	14.2	n.a.	n.a.	0.59	n.a.	n.a.	12.9	n.a.	n.a.

Regional Cement Price Breakdown

East China:
- Anhui: 36.7% (2015), 5.1% (2016E)
- Fujian: 11.6% (2015)
- Jiangsu: 26.5% (2015), 5.8% (2016E)
- Jiangxi: 23.0% (2015), 4.6% (2016E)
- Shandong: 35.4% (2015), 14.2% (2016E)
- Zhejiang: 56.6% (2015), 11.4% (2016E)
- Shanghai: 0.0% (2015), 0.0% (2016E)
- Total: 44.8% (2015), 41.6% (2016E)
South Central China:
- Guangdong: 24.5% (2015)
- Guangxi: 41.7% (2015)
- Hainan: 5.4% (2015)
- Hunan: 7.3% (2015), 5.9% (2016E)
- Hubei: 25.1% (2015)
- Henan: 15.9% (2015), 5.6% (2016E)
- Total: 26.4% (2015), 14.9% (2016E)
North China:
- Beijing: 0.0% (2015)
- Tianjin: 4.8% (2015)
- Hebei: 3.4% (2015)
- Shanxi: 7.7% (2015)
- Total: 0.0% (2015), 5.0% (2016E)
Northeast China:
- Heilongjiang: 4.1% (2015)
- Jilin: 2.1% (2015)
- Liaoning: 0.8% (2015)
- Total: 7.1% (2015), 0.0% (2016E)
Southwest China:
- Chongqing: 3.3% (2015)
- Sichuan: 12.6% (2015)
- Guizhou: 8.8% (2015)
- Yunnan: 6.6% (2015)
- Tibet: 0.0% (2015)
- Total: 31.3% (2015), 0.0% (2016E)
Northwest China:
- Gansu: 0.0% (2015)
- Shaanxi: 0.0% (2015)
- Qinghai: 0.0% (2015)
- Ningxia: 12.2% (2015)
- Xinjiang: 38.8% (2015)
- Total: 0.0% (2015), 0.0% (2016E)

Market Share in Terms of Clinker Capacity (2015)

East China:
- Anhui Conch: 53.0%
- CNBM: 26.5%
- CR Cement: 0.0%
- Shanshui: 0.0%
- BBMG: 0.0%
- TCCI: 0.0%
- Asia Cement: 0.0%
- WCC: 0.0%
- Sinoma Group: 0.0%
- Jidong: 0.0%
- Huaxin: 0.0%
- Total: 17.7%
South Central China:
- Guangdong: 16.2%
- Guangxi: 34.4%
- Hainan: 23.3%
- Hunan: 27.8%
- Hubei: 8.5%
- Henan: 15.9%
- Total: 12.1%
North China:
- Beijing: 100.0%
- Total: 0.0%
Northwest China:
- Total: 0.0%
Grand Total:
- Total: 100.0%